All the arguments for delaying your fantasy football draft were solidified Friday night when Cardinals rookie running back and sleeper candidate Ryan Williams suffered a season ending injury. Imagine your frustration if you spent an early pick hoping to latch on to a key cog of your fantasy team. That's just a brief commentary on the value of waiting to hold your draft. For the rest of us we are left with the task of deciding the implications of the injury, and how changed roles will affect our projections.
Many owners will simply elevate Chris "Beanie" Wells on their draft boards. While Wells' value certainly gets a tick, I would warn against blindly penciling him in as your RB2. There will always be value for the primary running back on a team in fantasy football, but the real challenge is to properly evaluate and gauge that value. Let's take a look at what we can reasonably expect from Wells in his, possibly, expanded role.
Wells is coming off a forgettable sophomore season where he saw his rushing yards dip below 400 yards and the injury bug paid him visits throughout the year. Wells has a history of battling lingering injuries dating back to his college days at Ohio State. His rookie campaign where he logged sixteen games was encouraging, but likely an anomaly. In thirteen games last year Wells saw his yards per carry drop over a yard per carry to a paltry 3.4 YPC and he only found the end zone twice.
If you play in a PPR league Wells will be a drag on your team in the receiving game as well. In his brief 29 game career Wells has only hauled in seventeen catches. Even if he claims the starting job outright Wells is not a three down back. Wells' regression, injuries and limited skill set are the exact reasons the Cardinals elected to spend an early draft pick on Williams in the first place!
The biggest factor being missed in this situation is that the Cards will likely look to bolster their backfield by adding another back either via trade or by signing a free agent. It is highly unlikely that Wells is the workhorse the entire year. Guys like Clinton Portis, or Laurence Maroney could be on their radar or they may target younger guys via trade like the Panthers' Mike Goodson or the Patriots' BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Goodson has shown promise in limited action and is the odd man out in a talented and crowded backfield in Carolina. Green-Ellis may be expendable for a Pats team who drafted two running backs in the last draft. While a back like Goodson or Green-Ellis would be best for us fantasy owners, the Cardinals are more likely to pursue a veteran at this point in the off season. If they are convinced that Williams is the back of the future it only stands to cause problems in subsequent years if Arizona trades for another young back to join him and Wells.
I expect the Cards to pursue a vet and employ a RBBC or look to play the hot hand as the game plays out. If you a looking for Wells to suddenly carry your fantasy team to the promised land you will likely be disappointed. Move him up your cheatsheets a little but I still wouldn't target him as anything other than a RB3 or flex option. If you are smart you still have some time for this situation to get worked out before you have to draft your team and work through these decisions. Good luck!
Showing posts with label Fantasy football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy football. Show all posts
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-AFC North
While some teams were very active during the off season other teams made few changes. Here is a look at teams in the AFC North, their new roster and what the changes could mean for your fantasy football prep.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens-Ray Rice's value got a boost when the Ravens signed fullback Vonta Leach to open holes for him to wiggle through. Rice is already a top five back and this move just solidifies his position as such.
Lee Evans was acquired in a trade with the Bills and he should step right in and start opposite Anquan Boldin. Evans no longer is a fantasy starter but his new setting and role project him as a quality backup and good WR4 option.
Cleveland Browns-The Browns really made no significant moves to affect your fantasy football consideration. Brandon Jackson joins Cleveland and should be in the back of your head if he can win the backup job away from Montario Hardesty and if Peyton Hillis were to get injured.
Cincinnati Bengals-If I have to find something to write about the Bengals and their spot in fantasy football, and it can't be to start your players against them, then I will have to focus on their first round draft pick AJ Green. Green enters the NFL with high expectations and with the departure of Chad Ochocinco the door is wide open for Green to start and contribute. What those contributions amount to remains a major question mark.
The Bengals look to have rookie Andy Dalton starting at quarterback and early indications are that he will be challenged to stay upright and throw the ball to anybody. Green will be overvalued and a trendy pick due to name recognition but I don't expect more than a 55/700/6 type season. If you can grab Green as a reserve go for it, but you will likely have to overpay to have him on your fantasy team this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers-The Steelers signed former Jet Jericho Cotchery last week and he joins a crowded receiving corp. Cotchery could have value as a vet possession receiver if he is able to get on the field regularly. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are entrenched and will get the primary targets. I wouldn't draft Cotchery, but keep him on a short list of candidates to add should he come out strong early.
AFC North
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| Ray Rice |
Lee Evans was acquired in a trade with the Bills and he should step right in and start opposite Anquan Boldin. Evans no longer is a fantasy starter but his new setting and role project him as a quality backup and good WR4 option.
Cleveland Browns-The Browns really made no significant moves to affect your fantasy football consideration. Brandon Jackson joins Cleveland and should be in the back of your head if he can win the backup job away from Montario Hardesty and if Peyton Hillis were to get injured.
Cincinnati Bengals-If I have to find something to write about the Bengals and their spot in fantasy football, and it can't be to start your players against them, then I will have to focus on their first round draft pick AJ Green. Green enters the NFL with high expectations and with the departure of Chad Ochocinco the door is wide open for Green to start and contribute. What those contributions amount to remains a major question mark.
The Bengals look to have rookie Andy Dalton starting at quarterback and early indications are that he will be challenged to stay upright and throw the ball to anybody. Green will be overvalued and a trendy pick due to name recognition but I don't expect more than a 55/700/6 type season. If you can grab Green as a reserve go for it, but you will likely have to overpay to have him on your fantasy team this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers-The Steelers signed former Jet Jericho Cotchery last week and he joins a crowded receiving corp. Cotchery could have value as a vet possession receiver if he is able to get on the field regularly. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are entrenched and will get the primary targets. I wouldn't draft Cotchery, but keep him on a short list of candidates to add should he come out strong early.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-NFC North
Not a whole lot changed in the NFC North to affect your fantasy football projections. Here is a look at the moves and what they mean.
NFC North
Chicago Bears-The only significant addition that the Bears made was to add former Cowboys back Marion Barber. Barber could have value in deep, scoring leagues and may steal some red zone carries from Matt Forte. His days as an everyday back are past but should Forte go down, you could do worse than an experienced player like Barber.
Detroit Lions-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
Green Bay Packers-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
Minnesota Vikings-Donovan McNabb finds himself on his third team in three years. The Vikes game plan will be to rely on Adrian Peterson and the running game, but McNabb will have to be an effective passer to keep defenses honest. His receivers aren't very impressive, but when has McNabb ever had above average receivers? McNabb is a dependable backup, but don't expect great results.
NFC North
Chicago Bears-The only significant addition that the Bears made was to add former Cowboys back Marion Barber. Barber could have value in deep, scoring leagues and may steal some red zone carries from Matt Forte. His days as an everyday back are past but should Forte go down, you could do worse than an experienced player like Barber.
Detroit Lions-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
Green Bay Packers-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
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| Donovan McNabb |
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-AFC South
AFC South
The Texans and Colts enter the 2011 season with very little changes to their roster that will affect your fantasy football choices on draft day. Here is a look at the Jags and Titans and the moves they made.
Jacksonville Jaguars-The Jags saw Mike Sims-Walker leave this off season and now the door is open for another receiver to step and claim a prominent role. Mike Thomas seems like the best candidate to put have a solid fantasy season. If you take the approach that someone has to catch the ball for the Jags then you will want to roll the dice on Thomas and snag him as a WR4 option for your team.
Jason Hill should get the starting nod opposite Thomas but is a long shot to put up quality numbers. Hill's four year cumulative numbers only add up to that of a bottom tier fantasy reserve. I only mention him here as a guy to have on your radar should he demonstrate the ability to perform in his new starting role.
Tennessee Titans-The Titans parted ways with Vince Young and look to start a rebuilding process lead by their first round draft pick Jake Locker. Ideally, Locker will be allowed to sit and learn this season and the Titans signed QB Matt Hasselbeck in hopes of having him mentor Locker. Hasselbeck will not register on fantasy rosters this season, but his presence helps stabilize the offense and will boost the value of Kenny Britt. Britt appears to have avoided a suspension for his off season troubles and if he can keep his nose clean throughout the season he should be a dependable WR2 in most formats. Britt is a big play receiver and has slightly lower value in PPR leagues, but he should turn in 65/1,100/11 numbers this season.
Keep an eye Chris Johnson's holdout and be prepared to give some consideration to Javon Ringer or Jamie Harper should this contract mess drag on. Both have shown flashes and could have fantasy value if they are able to steal a few starts away.
The Texans and Colts enter the 2011 season with very little changes to their roster that will affect your fantasy football choices on draft day. Here is a look at the Jags and Titans and the moves they made.
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| Mike Thomas |
Jason Hill should get the starting nod opposite Thomas but is a long shot to put up quality numbers. Hill's four year cumulative numbers only add up to that of a bottom tier fantasy reserve. I only mention him here as a guy to have on your radar should he demonstrate the ability to perform in his new starting role.
 |
| Kenny Britt |
Keep an eye Chris Johnson's holdout and be prepared to give some consideration to Javon Ringer or Jamie Harper should this contract mess drag on. Both have shown flashes and could have fantasy value if they are able to steal a few starts away.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-NFC East
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys-America's team was quiet on the acquisition front during the off season. The signing of Roy Williams with the Bears just solidifies Dez Bryant's role as the second receiver alongside Miles Austin. Bryant was clearly more talented than Williams but Williams' contract kept him on the field. Bryant finds himself with one less receiver to compete for targets with.
NY Giants-The Giants also did not make any notable acquisitions. Two departures will open up the door for existing players to step up and have a bigger role. Steve Smith was allowed to sign with the Eagles and with his injury would not have been available to contribute early in the season anyway. Mario Manningham expects to have a more prominent role and could eclipse the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his career. Manningham will be a value as your WR3.
The departure of of Kevin Boss thrusts Travis Beckum in as the starting Giants' tight end. Beckum is not the receiver that the departed Kevin Boss is but he will get the opportunity to step in as the starter this year. Unless he is a real surprise early in the year and proves to be a viable receiver Beckhum doesn't belong on your team.
Philadephia Eagles-The Eagles have made quite a splash in free agency signing several players bolstering their chances at making a deep playoff run and Super Bowl title. Nnamdi Asomugha was the big free agent prize and his presence propels the Eagles defense in to a top five fantasy defense.
The other signings look to have far less fantasy repercussions. Ronnie Brown signed and is a capable backup for LeSean McCoy. McCoy has only missed one game in his first two season, but Brown could be a valuable handcuff pick should McCoy suffer an injury.
The Steve Smith signing will likely have no bearing on your fantasy roster. Even if Smith can recover and get healthy he will have a hard time finding his way on to the field. He finds himself behind DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant and possibly Riley Cooper. Should Maclin's mystery illness be serious and the Eagles suffer another injury then Smith may warrant waiver consideration, but otherwise let someone else take the chance.
Washington Redskins-The team once recognized for treating free agency as fantasy football was unusually reasonable this off season. Tim Hightower was acquired and is competing for the starting running back job. He has had a good camp and performed well in the team's first preseason game. If Hightower continues to impress in the preseason games his stock will likely rise beyond a draft position of value for a guy who could lose his starting position at any point. Hightower's history of fumbles and Mike Shanahan's history of turning relative unknowns into 1,000 rushers could spell trouble. However, if Hightower can keep a grasp on the starting job the Skins' quarterback play is not intimidating and they may rely on the running game to maintain ball control and stay in games this year.
Dallas Cowboys-America's team was quiet on the acquisition front during the off season. The signing of Roy Williams with the Bears just solidifies Dez Bryant's role as the second receiver alongside Miles Austin. Bryant was clearly more talented than Williams but Williams' contract kept him on the field. Bryant finds himself with one less receiver to compete for targets with.
NY Giants-The Giants also did not make any notable acquisitions. Two departures will open up the door for existing players to step up and have a bigger role. Steve Smith was allowed to sign with the Eagles and with his injury would not have been available to contribute early in the season anyway. Mario Manningham expects to have a more prominent role and could eclipse the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his career. Manningham will be a value as your WR3.
The departure of of Kevin Boss thrusts Travis Beckum in as the starting Giants' tight end. Beckum is not the receiver that the departed Kevin Boss is but he will get the opportunity to step in as the starter this year. Unless he is a real surprise early in the year and proves to be a viable receiver Beckhum doesn't belong on your team.
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| Nnamdi Asomugha |
The other signings look to have far less fantasy repercussions. Ronnie Brown signed and is a capable backup for LeSean McCoy. McCoy has only missed one game in his first two season, but Brown could be a valuable handcuff pick should McCoy suffer an injury.
The Steve Smith signing will likely have no bearing on your fantasy roster. Even if Smith can recover and get healthy he will have a hard time finding his way on to the field. He finds himself behind DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant and possibly Riley Cooper. Should Maclin's mystery illness be serious and the Eagles suffer another injury then Smith may warrant waiver consideration, but otherwise let someone else take the chance.
 |
| Tim Hightower |
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-NFC South
Take a look at the fantasy players from the NFC South who will see their role change as result of a new team or the departure of a former teammate.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons-The Falcons are looking to make a Super Bowl run this year after a playoff loss to the Packers to end their 2010 season. Few changes were made as the Falcons looked to their solid nucleus in place. The only notable addition for the Falcons came via the draft when they traded up to select Julio Jones. Jones should step right in and claim a starting job opposite Roddy White. The Falcons use a balanced attack but they have the ability to air it out with a smart, signal caller in Matt Ryan. Look for Jones to post 65/750/4 and be worthy of a reserve receiver slot on your team.
Carolina Panthers-The overhaul of the Panthers included some major attention to the tight end position. The Panthers haven't had a receiving threat at tight end since Wesley Walls, but now have two possible targets in Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen. Olsen looks like the better option early in training camp and he should get plenty of targets for whichever young quarterback ends up under center. Olsen is a quality option for an owner who elects to pass on the top tier of tight ends.
New Orleans Saints-The former #2 overall draft selection Reggie Bush departed for Miami. Bush's talent never translated in to him being a feature back in the NFL, but his versatility allowed him to contribute in a variety of ways. Darren Sproles steps in and should have a similar role to Bush. Sproles is not worth fantasy consideration except in deep, PPR leagues.
The Saints also used the draft to address their revolving door running back situation adding Mark Ingram late in the first round. Ingram has the build to be a feature back, but history suggests he is more likely to share the load. Ingram is regularly being drafted in the third round of drafts and will likely not match that value on the the field this season. I have Ingram slated as a quality RB3 with high upside if he earns the majority of the carries, but with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Sproles in the mix that is an unlikely scenario.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-The Bucs did not make any fantasy football significant moves this off season. However, by allowing Cadillac Williams to leave the Bucs demonstrated their commitment to LeGarrette Blount as their primary running back. Blount had a surprising 1,000 yard six touchdown rookie campaign and will look to build on that this year. He will no longer fly under the radar, but Blount would make a reliable RB2. Another 1,000 yard season should be attainable and expect him to flirt with double digit TDs.
NFC South
 |
| Julio Jones |
Carolina Panthers-The overhaul of the Panthers included some major attention to the tight end position. The Panthers haven't had a receiving threat at tight end since Wesley Walls, but now have two possible targets in Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen. Olsen looks like the better option early in training camp and he should get plenty of targets for whichever young quarterback ends up under center. Olsen is a quality option for an owner who elects to pass on the top tier of tight ends.
New Orleans Saints-The former #2 overall draft selection Reggie Bush departed for Miami. Bush's talent never translated in to him being a feature back in the NFL, but his versatility allowed him to contribute in a variety of ways. Darren Sproles steps in and should have a similar role to Bush. Sproles is not worth fantasy consideration except in deep, PPR leagues.
The Saints also used the draft to address their revolving door running back situation adding Mark Ingram late in the first round. Ingram has the build to be a feature back, but history suggests he is more likely to share the load. Ingram is regularly being drafted in the third round of drafts and will likely not match that value on the the field this season. I have Ingram slated as a quality RB3 with high upside if he earns the majority of the carries, but with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Sproles in the mix that is an unlikely scenario.
 |
| LeGarrette Blount |
Monday, August 15, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-AFC West
Here is a quick rundown on players who are new to the AFC West and may contribute to your fantasy team.
AFC West
Denver Broncos-Willis McGahee enters the Broncos' backfield alongside Knowshon Moreno for new head coach John Fox who is well known for his committment to the run. Moreno has not endeared himself to the team in his time there, but McGahee has a lot miles on his tires and is nothing more than a cheap source of touchdowns at this stage in his career.
The departure of Jabar Gaffney opens the door for Eddie Royal to get more looks. I look for a solid 70/800/6 year from Royal and he will make a solid reserve and bye week fill in for your fantasy team.
Kansas City Chiefs-The Chiefs did not make any notable pick ups in free agency. Steve Breaston was added but appears to be the third receiver behind Dwayne Bowe and rookie Jonathan Baldwin. If Breaston can claim a starting role he would have late round fantasy value, but right now my advice is to pass.
Oakland Raiders-The Raiders added tight end Kevin Boss to replace Zach Miller. Boss is a better blocker and capable receiver, but he is a slight downgrade from Miller in the fantasy world. Boss is a last resort starter but quality backup or by week fill in if the matchup is right.
San Diego Chargers-The Bolts did not have any subtractions or additions of fantasy relevance this offseason.
AFC West
Denver Broncos-Willis McGahee enters the Broncos' backfield alongside Knowshon Moreno for new head coach John Fox who is well known for his committment to the run. Moreno has not endeared himself to the team in his time there, but McGahee has a lot miles on his tires and is nothing more than a cheap source of touchdowns at this stage in his career.
The departure of Jabar Gaffney opens the door for Eddie Royal to get more looks. I look for a solid 70/800/6 year from Royal and he will make a solid reserve and bye week fill in for your fantasy team.
Kansas City Chiefs-The Chiefs did not make any notable pick ups in free agency. Steve Breaston was added but appears to be the third receiver behind Dwayne Bowe and rookie Jonathan Baldwin. If Breaston can claim a starting role he would have late round fantasy value, but right now my advice is to pass.
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| Kevin Boss |
San Diego Chargers-The Bolts did not have any subtractions or additions of fantasy relevance this offseason.
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-AFC East
Here is a look at the players from the AFC East who moved to a new team this off season and their fantasy value.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills-The Bills made a trade this past week sending WR Lee Evans to the Ravens for a draft pick. Evans' numbers had declined since a career year in 2006, and the Bills decided to move another direction with their receivers. The trade solidifies Stevie Johnson's position as the go to receiver for the Bills and opens the door for Roscoe Parrish to step up and claim a starting job. Parrish is still not worthy of a fantasy football roster spot and the biggest impact of Evans being traded may be an increased role for CJ Spiller. Spiller has the skills and versatility to line up in the slot and could see his fantasy value increased especially in PPR leagues. Spiller was drafted as a RB2 last season but had a disappointing season ceding carries to Fred Jackson. Look for the Bills to incorporate Spiller in to a Reggie Bush type role allowing him to get 15 touches per game.
Earlier in free agency the Bills went out and signed former Jets do everything player Brad Smith. Smith's biggest value is in the return game. If you play in an especially deep league or get credit for return yards Smith may be late round flier, but in normal formats he merely a fantasy afterthought.
Miami Dolphins-The Dolphins key acquisition was the addition of RB Reggie Bush. Bush had carved out a niche in New Orleans when he was healthy and hopes to earn more of a feature role in Miami. Don't read too much in to Bush's placement atop the depth chart. The Dolphins drafted Daniel Thomas out of Kansas State in the second round with the intention of having him as their workhorse back. Thomas has the size and build to be a feature back in the NFL, and he will likely end up with many more carries than Bush throughout the season. Project Bush as a reserve running back in PPR leagues and cross your fingers that he can stay healthy.
New England Patriots-It is easy to get caught up in the sound bite that is Chad Ochocinco and overlook the fact that he is not an elite NFL receiver at this stage in his career. While he is certainly entertaining and productive he is not a building block for your fantasy football team. Ochocinco is the latest diva to head to New England in search of a Super Bowl ring and is saying all the right things during camp. His calling card has always been his route running and while that will endear him to Tom Brady, the Pats offense's calling card is spreading the ball around. As the season wears on it remains to be seen how a lack of targets will endear the Pats to Ocho.
For all his antics, Ochocinco has never been in any real trouble and will fall in line with the Patriots in attempting to cap his career off with a ring. If you target him based on production over name recognition then someone else will likely snatch Ochocinco up before you are willing to spend a pick on him. I have him slated as a high end WR3 with the potential to turn in WR2 production. Draft with 70/900/8 projections in mind.
NY Jets-The Jets played receiver roulette allowing Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith to go elsewhere, while signing Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason as replacements. Burress is already on the sidelines with a sprained ankle after missing the last two years while in jail. Burress has had a nice career and made some big catches and his size makes him a red zone threat but his age and time away from the game have to be considered as well. In his last season with the Giants Burress played in ten games catching 35 balls for 454 yards and 4 TDs. If he were able to play in all 16 games (a long shot) and produce 80% of his 2008 numbers his line is 45/581/5. In other words, not a guy who has a place on your fantasy football team.
Derrick Mason is one of those guys who bring much more value to their NFL team than they do your fantasy football team. Mason is a vet possession receiver who has managed to put together a nice career over a couple of stops, but his days of fantasy relevance of over.
AFC East
 |
| CJ Spiller |
Earlier in free agency the Bills went out and signed former Jets do everything player Brad Smith. Smith's biggest value is in the return game. If you play in an especially deep league or get credit for return yards Smith may be late round flier, but in normal formats he merely a fantasy afterthought.
Miami Dolphins-The Dolphins key acquisition was the addition of RB Reggie Bush. Bush had carved out a niche in New Orleans when he was healthy and hopes to earn more of a feature role in Miami. Don't read too much in to Bush's placement atop the depth chart. The Dolphins drafted Daniel Thomas out of Kansas State in the second round with the intention of having him as their workhorse back. Thomas has the size and build to be a feature back in the NFL, and he will likely end up with many more carries than Bush throughout the season. Project Bush as a reserve running back in PPR leagues and cross your fingers that he can stay healthy.
 |
| Chad Ochocinco |
For all his antics, Ochocinco has never been in any real trouble and will fall in line with the Patriots in attempting to cap his career off with a ring. If you target him based on production over name recognition then someone else will likely snatch Ochocinco up before you are willing to spend a pick on him. I have him slated as a high end WR3 with the potential to turn in WR2 production. Draft with 70/900/8 projections in mind.
NY Jets-The Jets played receiver roulette allowing Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith to go elsewhere, while signing Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason as replacements. Burress is already on the sidelines with a sprained ankle after missing the last two years while in jail. Burress has had a nice career and made some big catches and his size makes him a red zone threat but his age and time away from the game have to be considered as well. In his last season with the Giants Burress played in ten games catching 35 balls for 454 yards and 4 TDs. If he were able to play in all 16 games (a long shot) and produce 80% of his 2008 numbers his line is 45/581/5. In other words, not a guy who has a place on your fantasy football team.
Derrick Mason is one of those guys who bring much more value to their NFL team than they do your fantasy football team. Mason is a vet possession receiver who has managed to put together a nice career over a couple of stops, but his days of fantasy relevance of over.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-NFC West
The 2011 NFL off season has been one of the strangest off seasons in history and the repercussions have trickled over in to the world of fantasy football. With free agency and trades taking place on the heels of training camp and even spilling over in to the start of camp, keeping up with all the movement can be challenging. Here is a division by division rundown of all the notable player moves with fantasy football relevance and how the moves effect the player's value.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals-The Cards accelerated off season saw many fantasy noteworthy players come and go. Arizona hopes to have Kevin Kolb under center and consistently tossing TDs to Larry Fitzgerald for years to come. Kolb is an upgrade for the Cards and is a fringe fantasy starter or high end quality backup. I would approach him with caution and hope to land him as my QB2 and use him as trade bait if he performs up to expectations.
The trade of Tim Hightower thins out a crowded backfield where now Beanie Wells is the undisputed starter. Or is he? The Cards drafted Ryan Williams with the intentions of giving him the opportunity to carry the load. Wells is known to get dinged up and any extended stretch of missed time could mean that he finds himself as Williams' backup. Avoid Wells and consider Williams as a late round flier who could be a solid contributor if he claims the starting role. Arizona's backfield has the looks of a RBBC and you should temper your expectations for either player barring an injury.
Todd Heap is looking to end his career closer to home and joins the Cards as their starting tight end. Heap is a reliable, but unspectacular option. At this stage in this career he is nothing more than a fantasy reserve, but you aren't carrying two tight ends on your roster, are you?!
San Francisco 49ERs-Braylon Edwards joins a Niners team who has several questions with their receivers. Will Michael Crabtree mature and take advantage of all the talent that he possesses? Can Ted Ginn contribute as a wide receiver? Edwards signed a one year deal and will be playing this year for his next contract. Expect him to put up decent WR3 numbers. His background, work ethic and new surroundings will probably result in him being slightly undervalued. If you grab two dependable wideouts early don't feel bad about adding Edwards to round out your starters.
St. Louis Rams-The Rams only notable addition this off season was wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker. Sims-Walker has hauled in seven TDs in each of the last two years and should be a valuable red zone target for Sam Bradford. Consider Sims-Walker a quality backup, but with the Rams' muddled receiver situation he may have a increased role and value.
Seattle Seahawks-The Seahawks added a couple of quality pass catchers and Tavaris Jackson at quarterback. Zach Miller is a quality tight end but his fantasy value will take a hit now that he has left the Raiders' tight end friendly passing game. Miller has the look of a fringe starter or quality backup now that he is a Seahawk.
Sidney Rice flourished with Brett Favre at quarterback after suffering through forgettable seasons with Jackson at QB. But for some reason Rice followed his former Vikings teammate to the Pacific Northwest. Rice's value stands to be as a low end WR2 given his talent, but he could have some disappointing stretches given the possibility of the Seahawk's shaky quarterback play.
NFC West
 |
| Kevin Kolb |
The trade of Tim Hightower thins out a crowded backfield where now Beanie Wells is the undisputed starter. Or is he? The Cards drafted Ryan Williams with the intentions of giving him the opportunity to carry the load. Wells is known to get dinged up and any extended stretch of missed time could mean that he finds himself as Williams' backup. Avoid Wells and consider Williams as a late round flier who could be a solid contributor if he claims the starting role. Arizona's backfield has the looks of a RBBC and you should temper your expectations for either player barring an injury.
Todd Heap is looking to end his career closer to home and joins the Cards as their starting tight end. Heap is a reliable, but unspectacular option. At this stage in this career he is nothing more than a fantasy reserve, but you aren't carrying two tight ends on your roster, are you?!
San Francisco 49ERs-Braylon Edwards joins a Niners team who has several questions with their receivers. Will Michael Crabtree mature and take advantage of all the talent that he possesses? Can Ted Ginn contribute as a wide receiver? Edwards signed a one year deal and will be playing this year for his next contract. Expect him to put up decent WR3 numbers. His background, work ethic and new surroundings will probably result in him being slightly undervalued. If you grab two dependable wideouts early don't feel bad about adding Edwards to round out your starters.
 |
| Mike Sims-Walker |
Seattle Seahawks-The Seahawks added a couple of quality pass catchers and Tavaris Jackson at quarterback. Zach Miller is a quality tight end but his fantasy value will take a hit now that he has left the Raiders' tight end friendly passing game. Miller has the look of a fringe starter or quality backup now that he is a Seahawk.
Sidney Rice flourished with Brett Favre at quarterback after suffering through forgettable seasons with Jackson at QB. But for some reason Rice followed his former Vikings teammate to the Pacific Northwest. Rice's value stands to be as a low end WR2 given his talent, but he could have some disappointing stretches given the possibility of the Seahawk's shaky quarterback play.
Monday, August 1, 2011
NFC South-Fantasy Football Do's & Don'ts
If you were crazy enough to have your player rankings started before the start of free agency and training camp, I hope you at least had the foresight to use a pencil. Much has changed in the last week. Here is a trip around the NFC South and the players who should be on your fantasy football radar.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are coming off a playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champ Green Bay Packers and are looking to build off the solid run they had last year. The team feels that all the pieces are in place to win now and made a big splash in drafting wide receiver Julio Jones giving Matt Ryan another weapon to throw to. Ryan is a low end starting fantasy QB with some upside if he takes his game up a notch. He has shown flashes but has not established himself as an every week starter. He is one of those QBs you draft a little late but then backup with your QB2 fairly quickly. I anticipate a step forward in 2011 with a 4,000/30 season possible. If you miss out on the top tier QBs, Ryan is as close a thing to a low risk, sure thing as you will find.
Michael Turner rebounded from an injury to put up solid 1,371/12 season in 2010. Turner confirmed last week that he had off season groin surgery, but he expects no problems or setbacks. But then again, what did you think he would say? I would proceed with caution with Turner. He has logged over 300 carries in the two of the last three seasons, with the third being limited to eleven games due to injuries. His carries were limited early in his career when he backed up LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego, but you can not minimize the effect of so many carries on a back. He has the offensive line and talent to pile up solid numbers reminiscent of last year, but he will need to show in the preseason that he is completely healthy and ready to again shoulder the load for the Falcons. I see him as a low end RB1 or a high RB2.
If rookie Julio Jones is able to live up to the hype the Falcons will have one of the top receiving corps in the NFL. Jones will likely be overvalued on draft day due to name recognition and preseason hype so don't get sucked in and overpay. I see Jones as a WR3, but early in the season he may struggle to put up solid numbers. Fortunately, Jones will have Roddy White to draw the attention and coverage from him. White is a top end WR1 after tallying 115/1,389/10 numbers last year. Expect similar numbers from White in 2011 as the Falcons have all the pieces of a very potent offense in place. Tony Gonzalez's reception total was his lowest since 2002. I am not alone in having a soft spot for Gonzalez having rode his early career production to fantasy titles over the years, but he is simply no longer the player he once was. If you insist on drafting him, understand Gonzalez is only worthy as a TE2 at this stage.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton should only be drafted in keeper leagues. The Panthers have high hopes for the #1 overall selection, but with the abbreviated offseason, complicated QB position and a new coaching staff Newton will struggle in his rookie campaign.
The Panthers' strength is their running game. Unfortunately their success is as much a product of depth as it is performance. Deangelo Williams shares time with Jonathan Stewart, Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton in a very crowded backfield. Fantasy owners would have loved to have seen Williams sign elsewhere opening the door for both he and Stewart to have spotlight positions with their teams. If Williams can stay healthy (he regularly misses some games) he projects as no better than a RB2 with a lot of questions. Stewart will also be drafted but is not without injury questions of his own. Stewart expects to get slightly fewer carries than Williams and is a RB3 or injury flier at best. Goodson and Sutton are both capable performers but are blocked in a crowded backfield will see very limited action.
Steve Smith has the tools and determination to be an elite receiver, but their are too many questions at the QB position in Carolina. If you can grab Smith as a low end WR2 or high WR3 do so, but remember much of his value will be tied to who is charged with getting the ball to him. Brandon LaFell and David Gettis are the other receivers for the Panthers and do not deserve fantasy consideration until they can prove their ability to consistently contribute. Greg Olsen joins the Panthers after a trade from the Bears and is known for his ability to get down the field. Olsen has low TE1 projections with a good upside.
New Orleans Saints
Five straight years of at least 4,300 yards and 26 touchdowns; that's all Drew Brees has done. Brees is poised for another great year as the Saints have a solid set of skill players. Brees belongs in that top tier of QBs along with Rodgers and Brady. There is no reason to think that Brees won't put up the same type numbers he has enjoyed over the past several years in New Orleans.
Reggie Bush never was your typical workhorse type back and has moved on to Miami. The Saints are set to turn the majority of the carries over to rookie Mark Ingram. Ingram stands to be the beneficiary of the Saints spread offense that will open a lot of holes for him to run through. Ingram rates as a solid RB2 choice with upside. Pierre Thomas seems to have missed his opportunity to be the primary back and now is relegated to spot duty and only has value as a late flier pick or as an injury replacement.
Several wide receivers have value in the Saints' high power offense. Marques Colston is a solid WR1 option and is capable of carrying a fantasy team. Colston is a big red zone target and should be good for a 75/1,100/8 season. Lance Moore resigned with the Saints and will pair up with Robert Meachem as the other wideouts. The Saints offense will frustrate you from week to week with a different hot receiver. Colston is the most consistent of the trio but the other two make good matchup plays or bye week fill ins.
With Jeremy Shockey no longer in town, Jimmy Graham steps in and figures to be the Saints starter at tight end. Graham has good sleeper potential as a solid receiver on an explosive team. Graham put up modest numbers last year in limited action, but is a strong breakout candidate in 2011. I would feel comfortable having Graham as my starting tight end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman was a breakout player at quarterback last year and should only get better. If he can modestly build on last year's numbers Freeman projects as low end every week starter this year. You are best served using Freeman in a platoon setup where you play the better matchup from week to week.
The Bucs were full of surprises last year and LeGarrette Blount was a second half savior for many owners. With Cadillac Williams out of the picture Blount catapults to a dependable RB2 who should have little competition in the backfield. Another 1,000 yard with double digit TDs could be in order for his sophomore campaign.
Mike Williams (the other one) is the go to receiver in Tampa. As he continues to build a rapport with Freeman, Williams' numbers should improve. He was a TD machine last year, hauling in 11 catches for TDs. Grab Williams as a high end WR2 and you will be happy as he grows in his role. Arrelious Benn is said to be healthy and is a late round pickup who you can stash away on your bench to see how he performs. Kellen Winslow has to be mentioned but is inconsistent and is a reserve or injury fill in at best.
We are over half the way through looking around the league. Keep checking back for more updates and insights as you prep for your fantasy football draft.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are coming off a playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champ Green Bay Packers and are looking to build off the solid run they had last year. The team feels that all the pieces are in place to win now and made a big splash in drafting wide receiver Julio Jones giving Matt Ryan another weapon to throw to. Ryan is a low end starting fantasy QB with some upside if he takes his game up a notch. He has shown flashes but has not established himself as an every week starter. He is one of those QBs you draft a little late but then backup with your QB2 fairly quickly. I anticipate a step forward in 2011 with a 4,000/30 season possible. If you miss out on the top tier QBs, Ryan is as close a thing to a low risk, sure thing as you will find.
Michael Turner rebounded from an injury to put up solid 1,371/12 season in 2010. Turner confirmed last week that he had off season groin surgery, but he expects no problems or setbacks. But then again, what did you think he would say? I would proceed with caution with Turner. He has logged over 300 carries in the two of the last three seasons, with the third being limited to eleven games due to injuries. His carries were limited early in his career when he backed up LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego, but you can not minimize the effect of so many carries on a back. He has the offensive line and talent to pile up solid numbers reminiscent of last year, but he will need to show in the preseason that he is completely healthy and ready to again shoulder the load for the Falcons. I see him as a low end RB1 or a high RB2.
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| Roddy White is a top 3 fantasy wideout |
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton should only be drafted in keeper leagues. The Panthers have high hopes for the #1 overall selection, but with the abbreviated offseason, complicated QB position and a new coaching staff Newton will struggle in his rookie campaign.
The Panthers' strength is their running game. Unfortunately their success is as much a product of depth as it is performance. Deangelo Williams shares time with Jonathan Stewart, Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton in a very crowded backfield. Fantasy owners would have loved to have seen Williams sign elsewhere opening the door for both he and Stewart to have spotlight positions with their teams. If Williams can stay healthy (he regularly misses some games) he projects as no better than a RB2 with a lot of questions. Stewart will also be drafted but is not without injury questions of his own. Stewart expects to get slightly fewer carries than Williams and is a RB3 or injury flier at best. Goodson and Sutton are both capable performers but are blocked in a crowded backfield will see very limited action.
New Orleans Saints
Reggie Bush never was your typical workhorse type back and has moved on to Miami. The Saints are set to turn the majority of the carries over to rookie Mark Ingram. Ingram stands to be the beneficiary of the Saints spread offense that will open a lot of holes for him to run through. Ingram rates as a solid RB2 choice with upside. Pierre Thomas seems to have missed his opportunity to be the primary back and now is relegated to spot duty and only has value as a late flier pick or as an injury replacement.
Several wide receivers have value in the Saints' high power offense. Marques Colston is a solid WR1 option and is capable of carrying a fantasy team. Colston is a big red zone target and should be good for a 75/1,100/8 season. Lance Moore resigned with the Saints and will pair up with Robert Meachem as the other wideouts. The Saints offense will frustrate you from week to week with a different hot receiver. Colston is the most consistent of the trio but the other two make good matchup plays or bye week fill ins.
With Jeremy Shockey no longer in town, Jimmy Graham steps in and figures to be the Saints starter at tight end. Graham has good sleeper potential as a solid receiver on an explosive team. Graham put up modest numbers last year in limited action, but is a strong breakout candidate in 2011. I would feel comfortable having Graham as my starting tight end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman was a breakout player at quarterback last year and should only get better. If he can modestly build on last year's numbers Freeman projects as low end every week starter this year. You are best served using Freeman in a platoon setup where you play the better matchup from week to week.
Mike Williams (the other one) is the go to receiver in Tampa. As he continues to build a rapport with Freeman, Williams' numbers should improve. He was a TD machine last year, hauling in 11 catches for TDs. Grab Williams as a high end WR2 and you will be happy as he grows in his role. Arrelious Benn is said to be healthy and is a late round pickup who you can stash away on your bench to see how he performs. Kellen Winslow has to be mentioned but is inconsistent and is a reserve or injury fill in at best.
We are over half the way through looking around the league. Keep checking back for more updates and insights as you prep for your fantasy football draft.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
AFC South-Fantasy Football Do's And Don'ts
We are building up some steam with the recent free agent frenzy and you can feel football in the air. Here is look at the players in the AFC South who you need to be familiar with as you prepare for your draft.
Houston Texans
The Texans have an explosive offense capable of hurting you on the ground or through the air. Matt Schaub is a safe second tier pick for your fantasy quarterback. He racked up over 4,000 yards and had more than 24 passing TDs for the second consecutive year in 2010. His numbers were down a tick with the emergence of Arian Foster but the balanced attack will loosen defenses up and allow Schaub more space to work with. Another 4,300/25 season is within reach for Schaub.
Arian Foster was the fantasy surprise of the year in 2010. He won't slip to the middle of your draft this year and may even be the first overall selection. Even more impressive than Foster's 1,600 rushing yards were his 66 catches for over 600 yards out of the backfield. His projections in PPR leagues probably translate in to him being the number one back in your league. There are bigger names, but Foster may be the better pick. Ben Tate is a capable backup and a good handcuff pick for Foster owners.
Andre Johnson's catches and yards were very similar to the previous two years despite the fact that he missed three games in 2010. Like Foster, Johnson is the top player at his position. You can draft Johnson late in the first round after the run on backs and quarterbacks and pencil him in for his typical productive season. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are solid but unspectacular. Neither are worth drafting but keep them on your radar through the season as possible waiver wire adds.
How many years can a player be deemed a sleeper, before you are forced to accept that maybe he is in a coma? Owen Daniels has the tools to be a top tier tight end but he just can't stay healthy and put together one full, productive season. He should be drafted as a low tier starter but you may want to quickly back him up given his injury history.
Indianapolis Colts
For the first time in recent memory we enter the season with many questions surrounding Peyton Manning. Manning will enter the season coming off neck surgery and will likely miss much of the preseason while he recovers. I would never suggest that he needs the reps but the conditioning and timing with his receivers can not be understated. Manning should still be a low top tier QB, but don't be surprised if his early season production is a little less than normal.
Will this be the year that Joseph Addai moves on and gives way to Donald Brown, or does Addai still have a little gas in the tank? The two backs put up nearly identical numbers last year and either of them could emerge in 2011. If one of the two steps up and claims the starting job they would be a decent option for a RB3 slot on your team, but not much else. Addai may end up being cut and that would open the door for Brown to claim the job outright, so keep a close eye on the developments.
Reggie Wayne put up his normal, solid fantasy star numbers in 2010 and should be counted on for consistency at the receiver slot once again. His numbers will likely be down slightly, but he is very dependable. Expect a 85/1,200/8 season from Wayne who is slowly creeping out of his prime. Pierre Garcon is the current beneficiary of being the number two wideout with Peyton Manning as his quarterback. If Garcon can get past his case of the drops from last season he has the potential to be a good WR3 on your team. Austin Collie was a huge surprise last year before suffering three concussions. He has good potential and could be a sleeper pick, but be aware that another concussion could end his season or career.
Dallas Clark should return as a top tier tight end after recovering from an injury that cost him much of the 2010 season. Clark is a favorite target of Manning's and could register close to 100 receptions if he stays healthy. He may be undervalued due to his injury last season, but you can draft him with confidence as a top three tight end.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags drafted Blaine Gabbert with the intention of having his as their QB of the future. David Garrard will likely start most of the 2011 season. Neither option will have fantasy value this season.
Maurice Jones-Drew had his second straight 1,300 yard season but he saw his TDs drop from 15 to 5. He is a solid second tier back and will be looked on to carry the load for the Jags again this year. MJD's catches were also down last year, but he may see a pickup in receptions with the lack of off season workouts for teams due to the lockout.
Mike Sims-Walker is wildly inconsistent and disappeared for stretches last year. He suffered through three games where he didn't even register a catch. I can't trust him and can't suggest that you do either. Pass on Sims-Walker and let someone else pull their hair out from week to week. Mike Thomas is a decent sleeper option and could emerge as a WR3 option. Don't count on him to carry your team, but he will likely fly below the radar and be a good value pick. The only other solid receiving threat for the Jags is their tight end Marcedes Lewis. Lewis was especially productive in scoring leagues with a ten TD season in 2010. Sims-Walker's inconsistency and Thomas' size leave Lewis as the Jags number one red zone target and a candidate for another good season.
Tenneessee Titans
The Titans agreed to terms with Matt Hasslebeck to be their quarterback for the 2010 and to groom Jake Locker to be the eventual suceesor. Hasslebeck should not be drafted on draft day but could have value later in the season if you need a capable vet to fill in for injuries.
Chris Johnson has a solid argument to be the overall number one pick in your draft. The new coaching staff has said they intend to utilize Johnson more in the passing game and he will once again be a solid building block for your fantasy squad. If you are picking in the top three spots in your draft you can't go wrong with Johnson on your team.
If Kenny Britt is able to avoid suspension with the adoption of the new collective bargining agreement he has high WR2 capability with the talent to project to a WR1 now that he has a decent QB to get him the ball. Monitor his situation and adjust him down accordingly, depending on the length of any possible suspension. Jared Cook has the size and talent to emerge as a Antonio Gates type target at tight end. He hasn't been able to put it together in two seasons, but enters the 2011 season as the primary receiving tight end. He shouldn't be drafted but he warrrants some attention. Monitor his early season performances and grab him if he shows he is ready to live up to expectations.
With all the signings going on the last several days, all your cheatsheets and notes could find themselves obsolete from one minute to the next. Keep checking back to see how all the moves will effect the fantasy football projections for the coming year.
Houston Texans
The Texans have an explosive offense capable of hurting you on the ground or through the air. Matt Schaub is a safe second tier pick for your fantasy quarterback. He racked up over 4,000 yards and had more than 24 passing TDs for the second consecutive year in 2010. His numbers were down a tick with the emergence of Arian Foster but the balanced attack will loosen defenses up and allow Schaub more space to work with. Another 4,300/25 season is within reach for Schaub.
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| Arian Foster will not last until the middle of your fantasy draft this season |
Andre Johnson's catches and yards were very similar to the previous two years despite the fact that he missed three games in 2010. Like Foster, Johnson is the top player at his position. You can draft Johnson late in the first round after the run on backs and quarterbacks and pencil him in for his typical productive season. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are solid but unspectacular. Neither are worth drafting but keep them on your radar through the season as possible waiver wire adds.
How many years can a player be deemed a sleeper, before you are forced to accept that maybe he is in a coma? Owen Daniels has the tools to be a top tier tight end but he just can't stay healthy and put together one full, productive season. He should be drafted as a low tier starter but you may want to quickly back him up given his injury history.
Indianapolis Colts
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| Will off season neck surgery slow Peyton Manning in 2011? |
Will this be the year that Joseph Addai moves on and gives way to Donald Brown, or does Addai still have a little gas in the tank? The two backs put up nearly identical numbers last year and either of them could emerge in 2011. If one of the two steps up and claims the starting job they would be a decent option for a RB3 slot on your team, but not much else. Addai may end up being cut and that would open the door for Brown to claim the job outright, so keep a close eye on the developments.
Reggie Wayne put up his normal, solid fantasy star numbers in 2010 and should be counted on for consistency at the receiver slot once again. His numbers will likely be down slightly, but he is very dependable. Expect a 85/1,200/8 season from Wayne who is slowly creeping out of his prime. Pierre Garcon is the current beneficiary of being the number two wideout with Peyton Manning as his quarterback. If Garcon can get past his case of the drops from last season he has the potential to be a good WR3 on your team. Austin Collie was a huge surprise last year before suffering three concussions. He has good potential and could be a sleeper pick, but be aware that another concussion could end his season or career.
Dallas Clark should return as a top tier tight end after recovering from an injury that cost him much of the 2010 season. Clark is a favorite target of Manning's and could register close to 100 receptions if he stays healthy. He may be undervalued due to his injury last season, but you can draft him with confidence as a top three tight end.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags drafted Blaine Gabbert with the intention of having his as their QB of the future. David Garrard will likely start most of the 2011 season. Neither option will have fantasy value this season.
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| Expect another solid year for MJD |
Mike Sims-Walker is wildly inconsistent and disappeared for stretches last year. He suffered through three games where he didn't even register a catch. I can't trust him and can't suggest that you do either. Pass on Sims-Walker and let someone else pull their hair out from week to week. Mike Thomas is a decent sleeper option and could emerge as a WR3 option. Don't count on him to carry your team, but he will likely fly below the radar and be a good value pick. The only other solid receiving threat for the Jags is their tight end Marcedes Lewis. Lewis was especially productive in scoring leagues with a ten TD season in 2010. Sims-Walker's inconsistency and Thomas' size leave Lewis as the Jags number one red zone target and a candidate for another good season.
Tenneessee Titans
The Titans agreed to terms with Matt Hasslebeck to be their quarterback for the 2010 and to groom Jake Locker to be the eventual suceesor. Hasslebeck should not be drafted on draft day but could have value later in the season if you need a capable vet to fill in for injuries.
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| Is Chris Johnson #1 overall? |
Chris Johnson has a solid argument to be the overall number one pick in your draft. The new coaching staff has said they intend to utilize Johnson more in the passing game and he will once again be a solid building block for your fantasy squad. If you are picking in the top three spots in your draft you can't go wrong with Johnson on your team.
If Kenny Britt is able to avoid suspension with the adoption of the new collective bargining agreement he has high WR2 capability with the talent to project to a WR1 now that he has a decent QB to get him the ball. Monitor his situation and adjust him down accordingly, depending on the length of any possible suspension. Jared Cook has the size and talent to emerge as a Antonio Gates type target at tight end. He hasn't been able to put it together in two seasons, but enters the 2011 season as the primary receiving tight end. He shouldn't be drafted but he warrrants some attention. Monitor his early season performances and grab him if he shows he is ready to live up to expectations.
With all the signings going on the last several days, all your cheatsheets and notes could find themselves obsolete from one minute to the next. Keep checking back to see how all the moves will effect the fantasy football projections for the coming year.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
NFC West-Fantasy Football Do's & Don'ts
Teams are reporting to camp and all the craziness is starting with free agency. Here is a look at the players who make their home in the NFC West that deserve your consideration for your fantasy football team.
Arizona Cardinals
The QB situation in the desert will go a long way in determining the fantasy value of the surrounding cast. The Cards are expected to make a strong push for Kevin Kolb via trade with the Eagles. If Kolb lands in Arizona he immediately becomes their starter and has value as a solid QB2.
The backfield in Arizona is very crowded and looks to be a dreaded running back by committee situation. Beanie Wells will likely be overvalued on draft day even after a disappointing 2010 sophomore season. He only managed 2TDs and 397 yards while splitting time with Tim Hightower. Hightower is a restricted free agent and will likely be resigned for the Cards. To complicate things further, the Cardinals spent their 2nd round pick on Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams. Williams is a talented back who could eventually have fantasy football value, but the timeshare will likely diminish the value of any of these backs.
Larry Fitzgerald was a popular cornerstone for many fantasy squads last year. If it is possible to catch 90 balls for over 1,100 yards and have your season deemed a disappointment then Fitzgerald's 2010 season qualifies, but only because of the scant six TDs and high expectations. Should Kevin Kolb end up in Arizona then Fitzgerald's stock is solidified as a top tier WR again. Look for 90/1,200/10 with solid QB play. Expectations were also high for Steve Breaston last year. He was widely expected to step in to Anquan Boldin's spot and produce impressive stats. Instead, Breaston suffered through some injuries and only had 47 catches and one TD. He is a free agent now, but the Cards are expected to resign him. Again, if Arizona has a competent signal caller Breaston could be a quality reserve WR, but if not, he has no spot on your roster.
San Francisco 49ERs
Alex Smith is expected to be back as the Niners QB and does not have fantasy value unless you play in a very deep league.
Frank Gore saw his 2010 season cut short due to injuries and will see some competition in the backfield from Anthony Dixon. Gore has received a strong endorsement from new head coach Jim Harbaugh and should remain the workhorse back for the 49ERs again in 2011. Gore is a solid pass catcher and will make for a solid RB1 for teams that draft towards the back of the draft and are still looking to latch onto a strong back. Beware of his propensity for injuries and know that he will likely miss a couple of games, but you may be rewarded with a solid back capable of registering strong RB1 numbers.
Michael Crabtree is the only WR on the Niners that deserves your consideration on draft day. If he can continue to mature and get solid QB play he has shown the ability to be a solid WR2 option in all formats. If you can stomach stretches where he disappears and disappoints, draft him for his talent and upside.
Vernon Davis is arguably the best fantasy TE in the game. His TDs were down from 13 to 7 in 2010 but he still managed to pile up 914 yards and is doing his best to wrestle the best overall tight end moniker from Antonio Gates. He should be one of the first tight ends off the board and you can draft him expecting solid WR2 type numbers.
Seattle Seahawks
Is it possible for a playoff team to have hardly any players worth picking on draft day? The Seahawks may be that team. Keep a close eye on the QB situation as it develops in Seattle and adjust should they sign a vet capable of stepping in and contributing. If the job somehow falls to Charlie Whitehurst, run...fast and far!
Marshawn Lynch will always be remembered for going "beastmode" and breaking tackle after tackle on his way to one of the most memorable TDs in recent history. If Lynch is able to get the lion share of the carries he is a solid RB3 option and capable bye week fill in. Justin Forsett is still in the picture but saw his touches decrease last year and appears to be relegated to an injury option and third down back at this point.
What do you make of Mike Williams? Is the he the guy who caught 44 passes for 2 TDs from 05-07 or is the he the target that hauled in 65 catches for 751 yards in 2010? I tend to think you can expect a similar stat line from him. Williams appears to have matured as a person and is a good WR3 to consider. Keep an eye on how the Seahawk's offense performs early and what Ben Obomanu's role is. He may warrant deep league consideration if he continues to show development.
The emergence of Mike Williams came at the expense of John Carlson. Carlson saw his role reduced and he is now longer a reliable fantasy option.
St. Louis Rams
If Josh McDaniels is calling the plays in St. Louis this year Sam Bradford may quickly develop into a viable starting fantasy QB. Expect a continued maturation and development from Bradford who had over 3,500 yards and 18 TDs in this rookie campaign. I would be surprised if he doesn't surpass 3,800 yards with 24 TDs this season.
Steven Jackson takes a pounding and just keeps on running the ball. Just twenty eight, Jackson has still racked up over 2,200 touches in his career. He has the ability to carry the load, but could certainly benefit from a complementary back like Reggie Bush to lighten his load. Beware of the possibility of a drastic drop off and draft Jackson as a high to mid RB2.
The Rams would be well served to add a quality WR for Bradford to throw to. Sidney Rice would be a good option due to his size, skill set, and age. The current Rams receivers are not household names but could end up producing decent numbers for your fantasy team. Danny Amendola has far more value in a PPR league after hauling in 85 catches last year. Donnie Avery and Mardy Gilyard will battle with a handful of draft picks to get playing time and have very little fantasy value unless they are able to separate themselves and secure more playing time.
With all the player movement expected in the next several days, keep checking back for your division by division fantasy rundown.
Arizona Cardinals
The QB situation in the desert will go a long way in determining the fantasy value of the surrounding cast. The Cards are expected to make a strong push for Kevin Kolb via trade with the Eagles. If Kolb lands in Arizona he immediately becomes their starter and has value as a solid QB2.
The backfield in Arizona is very crowded and looks to be a dreaded running back by committee situation. Beanie Wells will likely be overvalued on draft day even after a disappointing 2010 sophomore season. He only managed 2TDs and 397 yards while splitting time with Tim Hightower. Hightower is a restricted free agent and will likely be resigned for the Cards. To complicate things further, the Cardinals spent their 2nd round pick on Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams. Williams is a talented back who could eventually have fantasy football value, but the timeshare will likely diminish the value of any of these backs.
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| Expect a bounce back fantasy season from Larry Fitzgerald in 2011 |
San Francisco 49ERs
Alex Smith is expected to be back as the Niners QB and does not have fantasy value unless you play in a very deep league.
Frank Gore saw his 2010 season cut short due to injuries and will see some competition in the backfield from Anthony Dixon. Gore has received a strong endorsement from new head coach Jim Harbaugh and should remain the workhorse back for the 49ERs again in 2011. Gore is a solid pass catcher and will make for a solid RB1 for teams that draft towards the back of the draft and are still looking to latch onto a strong back. Beware of his propensity for injuries and know that he will likely miss a couple of games, but you may be rewarded with a solid back capable of registering strong RB1 numbers.
Michael Crabtree is the only WR on the Niners that deserves your consideration on draft day. If he can continue to mature and get solid QB play he has shown the ability to be a solid WR2 option in all formats. If you can stomach stretches where he disappears and disappoints, draft him for his talent and upside.
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| Vernon Davis is arguably the best fantasy tight end |
Seattle Seahawks
Is it possible for a playoff team to have hardly any players worth picking on draft day? The Seahawks may be that team. Keep a close eye on the QB situation as it develops in Seattle and adjust should they sign a vet capable of stepping in and contributing. If the job somehow falls to Charlie Whitehurst, run...fast and far!
Marshawn Lynch will always be remembered for going "beastmode" and breaking tackle after tackle on his way to one of the most memorable TDs in recent history. If Lynch is able to get the lion share of the carries he is a solid RB3 option and capable bye week fill in. Justin Forsett is still in the picture but saw his touches decrease last year and appears to be relegated to an injury option and third down back at this point.
What do you make of Mike Williams? Is the he the guy who caught 44 passes for 2 TDs from 05-07 or is the he the target that hauled in 65 catches for 751 yards in 2010? I tend to think you can expect a similar stat line from him. Williams appears to have matured as a person and is a good WR3 to consider. Keep an eye on how the Seahawk's offense performs early and what Ben Obomanu's role is. He may warrant deep league consideration if he continues to show development.
The emergence of Mike Williams came at the expense of John Carlson. Carlson saw his role reduced and he is now longer a reliable fantasy option.
St. Louis Rams
Steven Jackson takes a pounding and just keeps on running the ball. Just twenty eight, Jackson has still racked up over 2,200 touches in his career. He has the ability to carry the load, but could certainly benefit from a complementary back like Reggie Bush to lighten his load. Beware of the possibility of a drastic drop off and draft Jackson as a high to mid RB2.
The Rams would be well served to add a quality WR for Bradford to throw to. Sidney Rice would be a good option due to his size, skill set, and age. The current Rams receivers are not household names but could end up producing decent numbers for your fantasy team. Danny Amendola has far more value in a PPR league after hauling in 85 catches last year. Donnie Avery and Mardy Gilyard will battle with a handful of draft picks to get playing time and have very little fantasy value unless they are able to separate themselves and secure more playing time.
With all the player movement expected in the next several days, keep checking back for your division by division fantasy rundown.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
NFC North-Fantasy Football Preview
The defending Super Bowl champ Green Bay Packers aren't without questions entering the 2011 fantasy football season after suffering through an exorbitant number of injuries on the road to the hoisting the Lombardi trophy last year. The Pack was able to plug backups in to their lineup and steamroll to the title. Winning fantasy teams are also built around quality depth. This post is the first in a series examining the key fantasy players from each division in the NFL. Today's spotlight is on the NFC North.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are anchored by the top fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers, and he has the belt to prove it. Rodgers carried Green Bay last year passing for nearly 4,000 yards while accounting for a total of 32 TDs. Another solid season appears in order. Rodgers numbers the last three years average out to 4131 yards with 28 passing touchdowns. He has been good for an additional 4 rushing TDs and is extremely durable. The only game he has missed in three years was in 2011 when he missed a week due to a concussion.
Ryan Grant suffered a season ending ankle injury in week one only managing to log eight carries for the season. Grant has declared himself the starting back in Green Bay for the coming year, but all indications are that the Packers running back duties will be split unless a surprise emerges. Grant has enjoyed the most success, registering two seasons of 1,200 plus yards. He is creeping towards the dreaded 30 year mark turning 29 during the upcoming season, but lacks the typical wear and tear of many backs his age. Brandon Jackson filled in admirably for Grant last season accumulating 703 yards but appears to be the odd man out behind Grant and James Starks who showed he was capable of carrying the load in the playoffs. Starks figures to be in the mix along with rookie Alex Green who the Packers spent a third round pick on. This backfield battle is certainly one to keep your eyes on through camp and in to the preseason to see if a clear cut starter emerges. If not, proceed with caution and only use a pick on one of these backs in the later rounds as sleeper pick.
Wide receiver has been a position of wealth for Green Bay for several seasons. Their explosive offense means several wideouts on their roster may find a spot on your fantasy roster. Greg Jennings is a top tier fantasy receiver and should again lead the Packers statistically. He is coming off a very solid 76/1265/12 season and should duplicate those numbers in 2011. The Packers have a solid trio of receivers behind Jennings. Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones all put up very similar numbers in 2010. While fantasy owners would like for a solid #2 option to emerge, any of the players are valuable as emergency spot starters. I expect Jones to seek a more prominent role and end up elsewhere in free agency. Driver and Nelson's numbers could see a bump but rookie Randall Cobb figures to work his way onto the field and again divide the catches.
After a strong stretch run in 2009, Jermichael Finley was a popular sleeper pick at tight end last year. He got off to a good start before being forced to the IR with a knee injury. Finley has the size and talent to be an excellent red zone target, but his injury history is a concern. Finley will be picked early because of his talent and potential. Don't overpay given his history and the depth at tight end.
Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler has the unique ability to cause to high five your buddies one minute and shout profanities at him the next. "Gunslinger" is a popular term for QBs like Cutler, but I'm not sure reckless and overconfident aren't better descriptions. Rarely can you say that a QB decreased his INTs by ten and still managed to average more than one pick per game. Combine those 16 interceptions with 9 fumbles and Cutler's inability to protect the ball make him a risky pick at QB. Cutler has the skill set to be an elite QB but he has yet to put it together for long stretches. Look elsewhere for your backup QB unless he proves early in the season to have changed his ways.
Matt Forte quietly put together a solid season last year. He was especially useful in PPR leagues where he tallied 51 catches and found the end zone on three of those. Forte, who doesn't turn 26 until December, has consistently been a good receiver out of the backfield. Consider him a solid RB2 on draft day and pencil him in for 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs.
Johnny Knox leads the Bears receiving corps. Knox is a safe WR2 for your fantasy team. Adjust him down a tick in PPR leagues. He nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards last season, but he did it on only 51 receptions. The other Bears receivers can be called the Disappointing Devins. Devin Hester is a solid return man and is capable of electrifying moments, but he hasn't put it all together as a wide receiver. Devin Aromashodu was a popular sleeper pick last year but only managed 10 catches on the season. Earl Bennett saw his production dip last year, and will be undervalued on draft day. Keep an eye on what the Bears do in free agency regarding wide receiver and adjust your rankings accordingly.
Greg Olsen is a bye week fill in at tight end and should be passed over on draft day.
Minnesota Vikings
Unless you play in a keeper league there is nothing to consider at QB for the Vikings. Christian Ponder may be a serviceable fantasy QB in the future, but he is not ready in 2011. The Vikings are expected to pursue a veteran free agent to lead their offense and groom Ponder, but regardless of whether that ends up being Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger or someone else they have no spot on your fantasy team.
Adrian Peterson is arguably the top player in fantasy football and will be leaned on heavily to carry the load for the Vikings offense. Peterson's numbers were down last year and they may not improve in the upcoming campaign. With questions at the quarterback position teams will load the line of scrimmage and dare the Vikings to beat them throwing the ball. Peterson is still an elite performer, but tread lightly and temper your expectations in light of variables out of his control.
Minnesota has a huge question mark at the receiver position with potential free agent Sidney Rice. Rice blossomed in 2009 with Brett Favre under center and put up solid numbers last year after returning from a hip injury. Rice, who turns 25 in September, could be one of the most highly sought after free agents when the owners and players reach an agreement, but will likely find himself as a restricted free agent. He was very underwhelming while playing his first two seasons with mediocre QBs and you will have to gauge his ranking based on his eventual landing spot and the their QB situation. Despite seeming to be on the injury report all of last season, Percy Harvin only missed two games in 2011. While he is a little less valuable than Rice, Harvin's may not suffer as much with the QB uncertainty due to the role he plays on the Vikings. Harvin has the explosiveness to score anytime he touches the ball and should be a big part of the Vikes intermediate passing game. Draft Harvin as a high WR3 with the upside to develop in to more.
The Vikings used their second round draft pick in April to select TE Kyle Rudolph. They will likely use a lot of two tight end sets, and will work Rudolph in at the expense of Visanthe Shiancoe. Neither TE has draft day appeal at this point. If Rice ends up elsewhere, Shiancoe may emerge as a red zone target, but not much else.
Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford has not been able to stay healthy in his short two year career. He has shown flashes when he is on the field and has a strong cast surrounding him. Stafford would be a good pick for an owner who secures a top tier QB and is looking at upside and a potential trade later in the season.
Jahvid Best is another back who's value sees an upward tick in PPR leagues. He only rushed for 551 yards last year, but grabbed 58 balls for an additional 487 yards. He found the end zone six times rushing last year but may see his goal line opportunities challenged by rookie 2nd round pick Mickel Leshoure. Leshoure is a power back who will be a solid complementary back for the Lions, but could drive fantasy owners crazy. Consider Best a shaky RB2 and Leshoure as a late round flier or potential TD vulture.
Calvin Johnson is an elite fantasy receiver and should be among the top three wideouts off the board in your draft. Look for Johnson to register a 85/1200/10 season. He is a solid building block for your fantasy squad having performed regardless of who was under center for the Lions. Beyond Johnson, the Lions do not have a sure thing at receiver on their roster. Nate Burleson had a productive season last year and could again be a decent WR4 option. The Lions drafted Titus Young out of Boise State and expect him to step in and get on the field in his rookie season. Young figures to spend most of his time working out the slot and has the talent to take some catches from Burleson. Both guys have the look of waiver wire fodder at this stage.
Brandon Pettigrew had a strong second pro season accumulating a 71/722/4 season. His size makes him a good red zone option and he may see an increase in his TD total. Slate him as a low TE1 and enjoy the upside.
Keep checking back as we work our way around the league and examine the potential fantasy contributors for the upcoming season.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are anchored by the top fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers, and he has the belt to prove it. Rodgers carried Green Bay last year passing for nearly 4,000 yards while accounting for a total of 32 TDs. Another solid season appears in order. Rodgers numbers the last three years average out to 4131 yards with 28 passing touchdowns. He has been good for an additional 4 rushing TDs and is extremely durable. The only game he has missed in three years was in 2011 when he missed a week due to a concussion.
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| Ryan Grant's ankle injury has the Packers looking at several options for their backfield in 2011 |
Wide receiver has been a position of wealth for Green Bay for several seasons. Their explosive offense means several wideouts on their roster may find a spot on your fantasy roster. Greg Jennings is a top tier fantasy receiver and should again lead the Packers statistically. He is coming off a very solid 76/1265/12 season and should duplicate those numbers in 2011. The Packers have a solid trio of receivers behind Jennings. Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones all put up very similar numbers in 2010. While fantasy owners would like for a solid #2 option to emerge, any of the players are valuable as emergency spot starters. I expect Jones to seek a more prominent role and end up elsewhere in free agency. Driver and Nelson's numbers could see a bump but rookie Randall Cobb figures to work his way onto the field and again divide the catches.
After a strong stretch run in 2009, Jermichael Finley was a popular sleeper pick at tight end last year. He got off to a good start before being forced to the IR with a knee injury. Finley has the size and talent to be an excellent red zone target, but his injury history is a concern. Finley will be picked early because of his talent and potential. Don't overpay given his history and the depth at tight end.
Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler has the unique ability to cause to high five your buddies one minute and shout profanities at him the next. "Gunslinger" is a popular term for QBs like Cutler, but I'm not sure reckless and overconfident aren't better descriptions. Rarely can you say that a QB decreased his INTs by ten and still managed to average more than one pick per game. Combine those 16 interceptions with 9 fumbles and Cutler's inability to protect the ball make him a risky pick at QB. Cutler has the skill set to be an elite QB but he has yet to put it together for long stretches. Look elsewhere for your backup QB unless he proves early in the season to have changed his ways.
Matt Forte quietly put together a solid season last year. He was especially useful in PPR leagues where he tallied 51 catches and found the end zone on three of those. Forte, who doesn't turn 26 until December, has consistently been a good receiver out of the backfield. Consider him a solid RB2 on draft day and pencil him in for 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs.
Johnny Knox leads the Bears receiving corps. Knox is a safe WR2 for your fantasy team. Adjust him down a tick in PPR leagues. He nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards last season, but he did it on only 51 receptions. The other Bears receivers can be called the Disappointing Devins. Devin Hester is a solid return man and is capable of electrifying moments, but he hasn't put it all together as a wide receiver. Devin Aromashodu was a popular sleeper pick last year but only managed 10 catches on the season. Earl Bennett saw his production dip last year, and will be undervalued on draft day. Keep an eye on what the Bears do in free agency regarding wide receiver and adjust your rankings accordingly.
Greg Olsen is a bye week fill in at tight end and should be passed over on draft day.
Minnesota Vikings
Unless you play in a keeper league there is nothing to consider at QB for the Vikings. Christian Ponder may be a serviceable fantasy QB in the future, but he is not ready in 2011. The Vikings are expected to pursue a veteran free agent to lead their offense and groom Ponder, but regardless of whether that ends up being Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger or someone else they have no spot on your fantasy team.
Adrian Peterson is arguably the top player in fantasy football and will be leaned on heavily to carry the load for the Vikings offense. Peterson's numbers were down last year and they may not improve in the upcoming campaign. With questions at the quarterback position teams will load the line of scrimmage and dare the Vikings to beat them throwing the ball. Peterson is still an elite performer, but tread lightly and temper your expectations in light of variables out of his control.
Minnesota has a huge question mark at the receiver position with potential free agent Sidney Rice. Rice blossomed in 2009 with Brett Favre under center and put up solid numbers last year after returning from a hip injury. Rice, who turns 25 in September, could be one of the most highly sought after free agents when the owners and players reach an agreement, but will likely find himself as a restricted free agent. He was very underwhelming while playing his first two seasons with mediocre QBs and you will have to gauge his ranking based on his eventual landing spot and the their QB situation. Despite seeming to be on the injury report all of last season, Percy Harvin only missed two games in 2011. While he is a little less valuable than Rice, Harvin's may not suffer as much with the QB uncertainty due to the role he plays on the Vikings. Harvin has the explosiveness to score anytime he touches the ball and should be a big part of the Vikes intermediate passing game. Draft Harvin as a high WR3 with the upside to develop in to more.
The Vikings used their second round draft pick in April to select TE Kyle Rudolph. They will likely use a lot of two tight end sets, and will work Rudolph in at the expense of Visanthe Shiancoe. Neither TE has draft day appeal at this point. If Rice ends up elsewhere, Shiancoe may emerge as a red zone target, but not much else.
Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford has not been able to stay healthy in his short two year career. He has shown flashes when he is on the field and has a strong cast surrounding him. Stafford would be a good pick for an owner who secures a top tier QB and is looking at upside and a potential trade later in the season.
Jahvid Best is another back who's value sees an upward tick in PPR leagues. He only rushed for 551 yards last year, but grabbed 58 balls for an additional 487 yards. He found the end zone six times rushing last year but may see his goal line opportunities challenged by rookie 2nd round pick Mickel Leshoure. Leshoure is a power back who will be a solid complementary back for the Lions, but could drive fantasy owners crazy. Consider Best a shaky RB2 and Leshoure as a late round flier or potential TD vulture.
Calvin Johnson is an elite fantasy receiver and should be among the top three wideouts off the board in your draft. Look for Johnson to register a 85/1200/10 season. He is a solid building block for your fantasy squad having performed regardless of who was under center for the Lions. Beyond Johnson, the Lions do not have a sure thing at receiver on their roster. Nate Burleson had a productive season last year and could again be a decent WR4 option. The Lions drafted Titus Young out of Boise State and expect him to step in and get on the field in his rookie season. Young figures to spend most of his time working out the slot and has the talent to take some catches from Burleson. Both guys have the look of waiver wire fodder at this stage.
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| Calvin Johnson should be one of the top three WRs drafted |
Keep checking back as we work our way around the league and examine the potential fantasy contributors for the upcoming season.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Be Flexible
All your research is done and now you are ready to dominate your draft. You have your players ranked and have noted the drop off lines in talent. Your homework shows you where players are generally being drafted and you have a mental notebook full of useful information about your opponents. Now it's time to execute and build your team.
The easy thing is to over think your draft and develop tunnel vision zeroing in on specific players. Now is not the time to reach and ruin all your hard work. Now is the time to be flexible, adjust and take what your opponents give you. Over the course of your draft, surprises will come up and your opponents will leave you scratching your head with some of their picks. If you are rigid in your approach you will miss the opportunity to grab a guy that should have never been available when you were picking.
Keep an eye on who is being picked and mark them off your list. Pay particular attention to the positions that your opponents are filling. Noticing that you and another owner are the only teams without a starting QB and seeing that you have three or more quarterbacks ranked in the same tier will allow you to fill depth at other positions confidently assuming your opponents will not take another signal caller. Work the depth at positions and draft the best available player according to need and you will be on your way to putting together a winning fantasy football team.
The easy thing is to over think your draft and develop tunnel vision zeroing in on specific players. Now is not the time to reach and ruin all your hard work. Now is the time to be flexible, adjust and take what your opponents give you. Over the course of your draft, surprises will come up and your opponents will leave you scratching your head with some of their picks. If you are rigid in your approach you will miss the opportunity to grab a guy that should have never been available when you were picking.
Keep an eye on who is being picked and mark them off your list. Pay particular attention to the positions that your opponents are filling. Noticing that you and another owner are the only teams without a starting QB and seeing that you have three or more quarterbacks ranked in the same tier will allow you to fill depth at other positions confidently assuming your opponents will not take another signal caller. Work the depth at positions and draft the best available player according to need and you will be on your way to putting together a winning fantasy football team.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Fantasy Football Draft-Snake or Auction
"Where are you picking?" It is the most common question leading up to draft day. What if I told you that your answer could be, "Anywhere, and everywhere I want!"
We all know that there are several different scoring systems that are commonly used in fantasy football, but you may not know that there is more than one way to draft for your league. Here is a quick rundown of both the snake and auction draft and how they work so that you can decide what type of draft is best for your league.
Overview
Snake-In the snake format owners select their team in a serpentine manner round after round. Draft position is usually determined well before the draft but may not be determined until just prior to drafting time. This format is the most popular and is a good starting point for beginners.
Auction-An auction draft is exactly what the name suggests it would be. Players are still called in a serpentine manner, but that is where the similarities end. Once a player is called and is placed on the "auction block" any owner can bid to have them on their team. Each team has a set amount of money, or a salary cap, to spend on their team. Once the draft is complete, trades and free agency are conducted just as they are in snake format. Auction amounts are not considered in trades and free agents have no $ value.
The auction draft is more strategic and stands to do a little natural thinning of the fantasy herd. In a snake draft an ill prepared owner may show up and fall in to a competitive team and occasionally even win the league. An auction draft requires more planning and strategy in placing auction values on the players. Owners who do their homework and are most prepared stand to be rewarded with the strongest teams.
The snake draft leads to long lulls for the owners picking near the front or back of the pack and they can get disinterested or lose track of who has already been selected. This is the guy we all know and love who calls out five names that have already been selected every time his pick rolls around from the fifth round on.
Another advantage of the auction draft is that no owner is handcuffed by his draft position early. There is always that spot where the clear cut order falls apart and an owner has to reach for a running back or go with a top tier receiver or quarterback. In an auction, the only opportunity to overpay for a player or position is completely your choice. For example, this year you may be picking fifth in your traditional snake draft and decide that there is not a real value pick at that slot. Regardless of what you think about the players who are there when your spot comes up, you are forced to make a selection for your roster. In an auction draft you have the flexibility to bring up a guy you have rated lower and go after him for the money you have determined him to be worth or you can call the name of one of the guys perceived to go in that spot and watch your opponents spend their money on him. Every pick allow you the option of effectively "trading down" to a spot of value.
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| Foster AND Peterson in your fantasy football backfield? With an auction draft anything is possible! |
Is your league ready to take the plunge and move to an auction draft? Here is a look at some basic strategy to prepare you for an auction draft.
I am a big believer in establishing tiers of players and drawing lines for the talent drop offs. This allows you to group players together and decide when you need to address a certain position and when you can let things slide a round further. In an auction draft, one draft day blunder you will want to avoid is to get caught chasing the last guy in a particular tier. This is especially true at the top of each positional tier where there will generally be a consensus among owners. Most owners will agree that this year the top three backs are Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster. While there is much debate as to how they are slated one to three most people can agree that is the top tier. Historically, the last of those three guys put on the auction block will go for a premium, and likely be overpaid for because owners will want to be sure to secure a guy in the top tier. Sometimes you can't help it and your opponents will overpay for the last and next to last guy in a tier, but if you can don't jump off the cliff reaching for a player because you backed yourself in a corner by waiting. Keep your head and know when to bow out of the bidding and spend your money elsewhere.
The easy thing to do in an auction draft is to spend your money. The way to win in an auction league is to spend your opponents money! Make sure you have your list of big name players that you are sour on and put them up for auction when your time rolls around. Bring your buddy's favorite player up and watch him overspend and allow you to slide into some solid value picks to fill out your roster later. You will even want to occasionally get in on the bidding and drive the price up, but know when to get out. Nobody admires the guy who pays five grand for the black velvet picture of the dogs playing poker!
The only way you should have any money left at the end of your draft is if you were fortunate enough to clean up with a hand full of $1 buys to end your draft. And even then, you shouldn't have much left. Once the draft is complete, trades and free agents are just as they are in a snake draft format. Dollar values are no longer of consequence, so there is no reason to save your money. Spend it all! Having said that don't be afraid to make some thrifty buys. Save your sleepers for the later rounds of the auction. You may be able to secure many of them for just one dollar. You can't count on landing every sleeper on your board for the minimum, so stash away a little money to make a strong run at the prospects that you feel strongest about. If you play your cards right and can save a little more money than your opponents through the early rounds, then late in the draft you will have positioned yourself to pick and choose the guys that your opponents have limited funds to pursue and still get a great bargain.
If you are looking to change things up in your league or take your league to a new level, I recommend that you consider giving an auction draft a try. Your draft will be a blast and your fellow owners will thank you later.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Check Your Heart At The Door
Your draft is coming together now and you are picking up momentum. One of the crucial pieces of knowledge that we looked at yesterday was to know your league and opponents' tendencies; it is just as important to not fall in to the trap of developing habits in your drafting strategy. The only manner you want to be predictable at is to be recognized for drafting based on your draft position, need and talent. By checking your heart at the door you won't fall in to the trap of drafting the guy that helped you win last year (unless he is the right guy at the right time anyway), or the aging star of your favorite team.
Too many great NFL players are average fantasy performers and get drafted far too early based solely on name recognition. Adopting a strict policy of drafting using with my system may leave your fantasy team without any players from your favorite NFL team and you may even end up with some players from your hated rival, but it will stack you with a team full of talent and ready to make a run at the title!
Too many great NFL players are average fantasy performers and get drafted far too early based solely on name recognition. Adopting a strict policy of drafting using with my system may leave your fantasy team without any players from your favorite NFL team and you may even end up with some players from your hated rival, but it will stack you with a team full of talent and ready to make a run at the title!
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Know Your League
All the pieces are falling in to place now. You are putting in the hard work on the front end of your draft so that you can dominate your fantasy football league through the fall and winter. You have your players slotted based on position, you have identified the drop off points and understand where players are generally being drafted by referencing average draft position. The goal of fantasy football is to beat your opponents and win your league. I believe knowing the scoring system of your league and the tendencies of your opponents are the often overlooked pieces of intelligence that might allow you to find some gems in your draft.
How could anyone reasonably expect to do well in a fantasy football league without fully understanding the rules? If you take my advice to heart and put in the time and work to plug your projections in to your league's scoring system part of your work is done. Make sure you know the scoring system that is in place! The other side of this is to know the roster makeup and positions that you will need to start each week. Much of your preparation should be dictated by the parameters that your league has in place.
One of the advantages of playing in a league with the same group of friends year after year is that you learn the tendencies of your opponents. Keeping some historical drafting data and a few mental notes will serve you well on draft day. There will be one guy who is eager to grab a quarterback early, someone comes to the table wanting to have a top three tight end, kicker and defense and another guy grew up outside Detroit and has some inside info on that 5th string undrafted free agent receiver that caught eleven passes in the preseason. This info will allow you to know what to expect and where you can maybe pass on a guy until the next round. Another good bit of information is the favorite team of all your opponents. We all have a tendency to gravitate to the known and fantasy football is no different. All these small pieces of information can be utilized to put you a few precious steps closer to walking away from your draft with a winning team.
How could anyone reasonably expect to do well in a fantasy football league without fully understanding the rules? If you take my advice to heart and put in the time and work to plug your projections in to your league's scoring system part of your work is done. Make sure you know the scoring system that is in place! The other side of this is to know the roster makeup and positions that you will need to start each week. Much of your preparation should be dictated by the parameters that your league has in place.
One of the advantages of playing in a league with the same group of friends year after year is that you learn the tendencies of your opponents. Keeping some historical drafting data and a few mental notes will serve you well on draft day. There will be one guy who is eager to grab a quarterback early, someone comes to the table wanting to have a top three tight end, kicker and defense and another guy grew up outside Detroit and has some inside info on that 5th string undrafted free agent receiver that caught eleven passes in the preseason. This info will allow you to know what to expect and where you can maybe pass on a guy until the next round. Another good bit of information is the favorite team of all your opponents. We all have a tendency to gravitate to the known and fantasy football is no different. All these small pieces of information can be utilized to put you a few precious steps closer to walking away from your draft with a winning team.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Research Average Draft Positions
You are getting closer to putting together all the tools to have a strong fantasy football draft. Players are ranked and you have determined drop offs at each positions so that you can capitalize on similarly performing players, now you need to start the process of understanding what others think about the players.
Understanding ADP will help you answer several questions when trying to evaluate your next pick...
Is their a receiver that I need consider rather than a running back?
When should I take a tight end rather than another receiver?
By researching ADP you can better compare where players are being drafted across the position lines. In order to have the best grasp on ADP you will need to use the most up to date information. A magazine can not adequately account for all the changes that take place throughout training camp. Last year if you thought that you would be able to wait until the last several rounds to grab Arian Foster you would have been disappointed several times over. ADP will give you an idea of what others are thinking when drafting their teams but there are still other key factors that you have to recognize. Keep coming back to for more information on how you can prepare to dominate your league by having a strong draft.
Understanding ADP will help you answer several questions when trying to evaluate your next pick...
Is their a receiver that I need consider rather than a running back?
When should I take a tight end rather than another receiver?
By researching ADP you can better compare where players are being drafted across the position lines. In order to have the best grasp on ADP you will need to use the most up to date information. A magazine can not adequately account for all the changes that take place throughout training camp. Last year if you thought that you would be able to wait until the last several rounds to grab Arian Foster you would have been disappointed several times over. ADP will give you an idea of what others are thinking when drafting their teams but there are still other key factors that you have to recognize. Keep coming back to for more information on how you can prepare to dominate your league by having a strong draft.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Set Position Thresholds
Once you have established the rankings for each position based on your league's scoring system, the next thing you need to do is to determine thresholds at each position. Thresholds are just a fancy way of saying that you should determine where there is a group of players that you can expect to score similarly and where the drop-offs occur.
Knowing where the talent drops off at a certain position can be especially useful if you are drafting near either end of your draft. If you are caught between players at different positions but have determined that you can expect a similar performance out of 3-4 guys at one position and their is a drop off at the other slot you should grab the guy at the bottom of the threshold and know that there will still be a guy that you can live with available when your pick rolls back around.
The easiest way that I have found to draw these lines is to take my projections, run them through my scoring system and then divide these numbers over sixteen games. This will give you an idea of a weekly scoring expectation if all things go as planned throughout the season(they won't). Breaking down the numbers incrementally will allow you to better evaluate actual game by game performances. Now you have drawn some thin lines that will allow you to more objectively draft players based on the numbers and not the names.
The next step we will look at will be to know average draft positions of players and understanding what your opponents may be thinking.
Knowing where the talent drops off at a certain position can be especially useful if you are drafting near either end of your draft. If you are caught between players at different positions but have determined that you can expect a similar performance out of 3-4 guys at one position and their is a drop off at the other slot you should grab the guy at the bottom of the threshold and know that there will still be a guy that you can live with available when your pick rolls back around.
The easiest way that I have found to draw these lines is to take my projections, run them through my scoring system and then divide these numbers over sixteen games. This will give you an idea of a weekly scoring expectation if all things go as planned throughout the season(they won't). Breaking down the numbers incrementally will allow you to better evaluate actual game by game performances. Now you have drawn some thin lines that will allow you to more objectively draft players based on the numbers and not the names.
The next step we will look at will be to know average draft positions of players and understanding what your opponents may be thinking.
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