NFC South-Fantasy Football Do's & Don'ts

If you were crazy enough to have your player rankings started before the start of free agency and training camp, I hope you at least had the foresight to use a pencil.  Much has changed in the last week.  Here is a trip around the NFC South and the players who should be on your fantasy football radar. 

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are coming off a playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champ Green Bay Packers and are looking to build off the solid run they had last year.  The team feels that all the pieces are in place to win now and made a big splash in drafting wide receiver Julio Jones giving Matt Ryan another weapon to throw to.  Ryan is a low end starting fantasy QB with some upside if he takes his game up a notch.  He has shown flashes but has not established himself as an every week starter.  He is one of those QBs you draft a little late but then backup with your QB2 fairly quickly.  I anticipate a step forward in 2011 with a 4,000/30 season possible.  If you miss out on the top tier QBs, Ryan is as close a thing to a low risk, sure thing as you will find. 

Michael Turner rebounded from an injury to put up solid 1,371/12 season in 2010.  Turner confirmed last week that he had off season groin surgery, but he expects no problems or setbacks.  But then again, what did you think he would say?  I would proceed with caution with Turner.  He has logged over 300 carries in the two of the last three seasons, with the third being limited to eleven games due to injuries.  His carries were limited early in his career when he backed up LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego, but you can not minimize the effect of so many carries on a back.  He has the offensive line and talent to pile up solid numbers reminiscent of last year, but he will need to show in the preseason that he is completely healthy and ready to again shoulder the load for the Falcons.  I see him as a low end RB1 or a high RB2. 



Roddy White is a top 3
fantasy wideout

 If rookie Julio Jones is able to live up to the hype the Falcons will have one of the top receiving corps in the NFL.  Jones will likely be overvalued on draft day due to name recognition and preseason hype so don't get sucked in and overpay.  I see Jones as a WR3, but early in the season he may struggle to put up solid numbers.  Fortunately, Jones will have Roddy White to draw the attention and coverage from him.  White is a top end WR1 after tallying 115/1,389/10 numbers last year.  Expect similar numbers from White in 2011 as the Falcons have all the pieces of a very potent offense in place.  Tony Gonzalez's reception total was his lowest since 2002.  I am not alone in having a soft spot for Gonzalez having rode his early career production to fantasy titles over the years, but he is simply no longer the player he once was.  If you insist on drafting him, understand Gonzalez is only worthy as a TE2 at this stage. 

Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton should only be drafted in keeper leagues.  The Panthers have high hopes for the #1 overall selection, but with the abbreviated offseason, complicated QB position and a new coaching staff Newton will struggle in his rookie campaign. 

The Panthers' strength is their running game.  Unfortunately their success is as much a product of depth as it is performance.  Deangelo Williams shares time with Jonathan Stewart, Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton in a very crowded backfield.  Fantasy owners would have loved to have seen Williams sign elsewhere opening the door for both he and Stewart to have spotlight positions with their teams. If Williams can stay healthy (he regularly misses some games) he projects as no better than a RB2 with a lot of questions.  Stewart will also be drafted but is not without injury questions of his own.  Stewart expects to get slightly fewer carries than Williams and is a RB3 or injury flier at best.  Goodson and Sutton are both capable performers but are blocked in a crowded backfield will see very limited action. 

Steve Smith has the tools and determination to be an elite receiver, but their are too many questions at the QB position in Carolina.  If you can grab Smith as a low end WR2 or high WR3 do so, but remember much of his value will be tied to who is charged with getting the ball to him.  Brandon LaFell and David Gettis are the other receivers for the Panthers and do not deserve fantasy consideration until they can prove their ability to consistently contribute.  Greg Olsen joins the Panthers after a trade from the Bears and is known for his ability to get down the field.  Olsen has low TE1 projections with a good upside. 

New Orleans Saints

Five straight years of at least 4,300 yards and 26 touchdowns; that's all Drew Brees has done.  Brees is poised for another great year as the Saints have a solid set of skill players.  Brees belongs in that top tier of QBs along with Rodgers and Brady.  There is no reason to think that Brees won't put up the same type numbers he has enjoyed over the past several years in New Orleans. 

Reggie Bush never was your typical workhorse type back and has moved on to Miami.  The Saints are set to turn the majority of the carries over to rookie Mark Ingram.  Ingram stands to be the beneficiary of the Saints spread offense that will open a lot of holes for him to run through.  Ingram rates as a solid RB2 choice with upside.  Pierre Thomas seems to have missed his opportunity to be the primary back and now is relegated to spot duty and only has value as a late flier pick or as an injury replacement.

Several wide receivers have value in the Saints' high power offense.  Marques Colston is a solid WR1 option and is capable of carrying a fantasy team.  Colston is a big red zone target and should be good for a 75/1,100/8 season.  Lance Moore resigned with the Saints and will pair up with Robert Meachem as the other wideouts.  The Saints offense will frustrate you from week to week with a different hot receiver.  Colston is the most consistent of the trio but the other two make good matchup plays or bye week fill ins. 

With Jeremy Shockey no longer in town, Jimmy Graham steps in and figures to be the Saints starter at tight end.  Graham has good sleeper potential as a solid receiver on an explosive team.  Graham put up modest numbers last year in limited action, but is a strong breakout candidate in 2011.  I would feel comfortable having Graham as my starting tight end. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman was a breakout player at quarterback last year and should only get better.  If he can modestly build on last year's numbers Freeman projects as low end every week starter this year.  You are best served using Freeman in a platoon setup where you play the better matchup from week to week. 

The Bucs were full of surprises last year and LeGarrette Blount was a second half savior for many owners.  With Cadillac Williams out of the picture Blount catapults to a dependable RB2 who should have little competition in the backfield.  Another 1,000 yard with double digit TDs could be in order for his sophomore campaign. 

Mike Williams (the other one) is the go to receiver in Tampa.  As he continues to build a rapport with Freeman, Williams' numbers should improve.  He was a TD machine last year, hauling in 11 catches for TDs.  Grab Williams as a high end WR2 and you will be happy as he grows in his role.  Arrelious Benn is said to be healthy and is a late round pickup who you can stash away on your bench to see how he performs.  Kellen Winslow has to be mentioned but is inconsistent and is a reserve or injury fill in at best. 

We are over half the way through looking around the league.  Keep checking back for more updates and insights as you prep for your fantasy football draft. 

NFC West-Fantasy Football Do's & Don'ts

Teams are reporting to camp and all the craziness is starting with free agency.  Here is a look at the players who make their home in the NFC West that deserve your consideration for your fantasy football team. 

Arizona Cardinals
The QB situation in the desert will go a long way in determining the fantasy value of the surrounding cast.  The Cards are expected to make a strong push for Kevin Kolb via trade with the Eagles.  If Kolb lands in Arizona he immediately becomes their starter and has value as a solid QB2.

The backfield in Arizona is very crowded and looks to be a dreaded running back by committee situation.  Beanie Wells will likely be overvalued on draft day even after a disappointing 2010 sophomore season.  He only managed 2TDs and 397 yards while splitting time with Tim Hightower.  Hightower is a restricted free agent and will likely be resigned for the Cards.  To complicate things further, the Cardinals spent their 2nd round pick on Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams.  Williams is a talented back who could eventually have fantasy football value, but the timeshare will likely diminish the value of any of these backs. 



Expect a bounce back fantasy season
from Larry Fitzgerald in 2011

 Larry Fitzgerald was a popular cornerstone for many fantasy squads last year.  If it is possible to catch 90 balls for over 1,100 yards and have your season deemed a disappointment then Fitzgerald's 2010 season qualifies, but only because of the scant six TDs and high expectations.  Should Kevin Kolb end up in Arizona then Fitzgerald's stock is solidified as a top tier WR again.  Look for 90/1,200/10 with solid QB play.  Expectations were also high for Steve Breaston last year.  He was widely expected to step in to Anquan Boldin's spot and produce impressive stats.  Instead, Breaston suffered through some injuries and only had 47 catches and one TD.  He is a free agent now, but the Cards are expected to resign him.  Again, if Arizona has a competent signal caller Breaston could be a quality reserve WR, but if not, he has no spot on your roster. 



San Francisco 49ERs
Alex Smith is expected to be back as the Niners QB and does not have fantasy value unless you play in a very deep league.

Frank Gore saw his 2010 season cut short due to injuries and will see some competition in the backfield from Anthony Dixon.  Gore has received a strong endorsement from new head coach Jim Harbaugh and should remain the workhorse back for the 49ERs again in 2011.  Gore is a solid pass catcher and will make for a solid RB1 for teams that draft towards the back of the draft and are still looking to latch onto a strong back.  Beware of his propensity for injuries and know that he will likely miss a couple of games, but you may be rewarded with a solid back capable of registering strong RB1 numbers. 

Michael Crabtree is the only WR on the Niners that deserves your consideration on draft day.  If he can continue to mature and get solid QB play he has shown the ability to be a solid WR2 option in all formats.  If you can stomach stretches where he disappears and disappoints, draft him for his talent and upside. 



Vernon Davis is arguably the best
fantasy tight end

 Vernon Davis is arguably the best fantasy TE in the game.  His TDs were down from 13 to 7 in 2010 but he still managed to pile up 914 yards and is doing his best to wrestle the best overall tight end moniker from Antonio Gates.  He should be one of the first tight ends off the board and you can draft him expecting solid WR2 type numbers.

Seattle Seahawks
Is it possible for a playoff team to have hardly any players worth picking on draft day?  The Seahawks may be that team.  Keep a close eye on the QB situation as it develops in Seattle and adjust should they sign a vet capable of stepping in and contributing.  If the job somehow falls to Charlie Whitehurst, run...fast and far!

Marshawn Lynch will always be remembered for going "beastmode" and breaking tackle after tackle on his way to one of the most memorable TDs in recent history.  If Lynch is able to get the lion share of the carries he is a solid RB3 option and capable bye week fill in.  Justin Forsett is still in the picture but saw his touches decrease last year and appears to be relegated to an injury option and third down back at this point. 

What do you make of Mike Williams?  Is the he the guy who caught 44 passes for 2 TDs from 05-07 or is the he the target that hauled in 65 catches for 751 yards in 2010?  I tend to think you can expect a similar stat line from him.  Williams appears to have matured as a person and is a good WR3 to consider.  Keep an eye on how the Seahawk's offense performs early and what Ben Obomanu's role is.  He may warrant deep league consideration if he continues to show development. 

The emergence of Mike Williams came at the expense of John Carlson.  Carlson saw his role reduced and he is now longer a reliable fantasy option.


St. Louis Rams

If Josh McDaniels is calling the plays in St. Louis this year Sam Bradford may quickly develop into a viable starting fantasy QB.  Expect a continued maturation and development from Bradford who had over 3,500 yards and 18 TDs in this rookie campaign.  I would be surprised if he doesn't surpass 3,800 yards with 24 TDs this season. 

Steven Jackson takes a pounding and just keeps on running the ball.  Just twenty eight, Jackson has still racked up over 2,200 touches in his career.  He has the ability to carry the load, but could certainly benefit from a complementary back like Reggie Bush to lighten his load.  Beware of the possibility of a drastic drop off and draft Jackson as a high to mid RB2. 

The Rams would be well served to add a quality WR for Bradford to throw to.  Sidney Rice would be a good option due to his size, skill set, and age.  The current Rams receivers are not household names but could end up producing decent numbers for your fantasy team.  Danny Amendola has far more value in a PPR league after hauling in 85 catches last year.  Donnie Avery and Mardy Gilyard will battle with a handful of draft picks to get playing time and have very little fantasy value unless they are able to separate themselves and secure more playing time. 

With all the player movement expected in the next several days, keep checking back for your division by division fantasy rundown.