NFC North-Fantasy Football Preview

The defending Super Bowl champ Green Bay Packers aren't without questions entering the 2011 fantasy football season after suffering through an exorbitant number of injuries on the road to the hoisting the Lombardi trophy last year.  The Pack was able to plug backups in to their lineup and steamroll to the title.  Winning fantasy teams are also built around quality depth.  This post is the first in a series examining the key fantasy players from each division in the NFL.  Today's spotlight is on the NFC North.

Green Bay Packers
The Packers are anchored by the top fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers, and he has the belt to prove it.  Rodgers carried Green Bay last year passing for nearly 4,000 yards while accounting for a total of 32 TDs.  Another solid season appears in order.  Rodgers numbers the last three years average out to 4131 yards with 28 passing touchdowns.  He has been good for an additional 4 rushing TDs and is extremely durable.  The only game he has missed in three years was in 2011 when he missed a week due to a concussion. 



Ryan Grant's ankle injury has the
Packers looking at several options
for their backfield in 2011

 Ryan Grant suffered a season ending ankle injury in week one only managing to log eight carries for the season.  Grant has declared himself the starting back in Green Bay for the coming year, but all indications are that the Packers running back duties will be split unless a surprise emerges.  Grant has enjoyed the most success, registering two seasons of 1,200 plus yards.  He is creeping towards the dreaded 30 year mark turning 29 during the upcoming season, but lacks the typical wear and tear of many backs his age.  Brandon Jackson filled in admirably for Grant last season accumulating 703 yards but appears to be the odd man out behind Grant and James Starks who showed he was capable of carrying the load in the playoffs.  Starks figures to be in the mix along with rookie Alex Green who the Packers spent a third round pick on.  This backfield battle is certainly one to keep your eyes on through camp and in to the preseason to see if a clear cut starter emerges.  If not, proceed with caution and only use a pick on one of these backs in the later rounds as sleeper pick. 

Wide receiver has been a position of wealth for Green Bay for several seasons.  Their explosive offense means several wideouts on their roster may find a spot on your fantasy roster.  Greg Jennings is a top tier fantasy receiver and should again lead the Packers statistically.  He is coming off a very solid 76/1265/12 season and should duplicate those numbers in 2011.  The Packers have a solid trio of receivers behind Jennings.  Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones all put up very similar numbers in 2010.  While fantasy owners would like for a solid #2 option to emerge, any of the players are valuable as emergency spot starters.  I expect Jones to seek a more prominent role and end up elsewhere in free agency.  Driver and Nelson's numbers could see a bump but rookie Randall Cobb figures to work his way onto the field and again divide the catches.

After a strong stretch run in 2009, Jermichael Finley was a popular sleeper pick at tight end last year.  He got off to a good start before being forced to the IR with a knee injury.  Finley has the size and talent to be an excellent red zone target, but his injury history is a concern.  Finley will be picked early because of his talent and potential.  Don't overpay given his history and the depth at tight end. 

Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler has the unique ability to cause to high five your buddies one minute and shout profanities at him the next.  "Gunslinger" is a popular term for QBs like Cutler, but I'm not sure reckless and overconfident aren't better descriptions. Rarely can you say that a QB decreased his INTs by ten and still managed to average more than one pick per game.  Combine those 16 interceptions with 9 fumbles and Cutler's inability to protect the ball make him a risky pick at QB.  Cutler has the skill set to be an elite QB but he has yet to put it together for long stretches.  Look elsewhere for your backup QB unless he proves early in the season to have changed his ways.

Matt Forte quietly put together a solid season last year.  He was especially useful in PPR leagues where he tallied 51 catches and found the end zone on three of those.  Forte, who doesn't turn 26 until December, has consistently been a good receiver out of the backfield.  Consider him a solid RB2 on draft day and pencil him in for 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs. 

Johnny Knox leads the Bears receiving corps.  Knox is a safe WR2 for your fantasy team.  Adjust him down a tick in PPR leagues.  He nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards last season, but he did it on only 51 receptions.  The other Bears receivers can be called the Disappointing Devins.  Devin Hester is a solid return man and is capable of electrifying moments, but he hasn't put it all together as a wide receiver.  Devin Aromashodu was a popular sleeper pick last year but only managed 10 catches on the season.  Earl Bennett saw his production dip last year, and will be undervalued on draft day.  Keep an eye on what the Bears do in free agency regarding wide receiver and adjust your rankings accordingly. 

Greg Olsen is a bye week fill in at tight end and should be passed over on draft day. 

Minnesota Vikings
Unless you play in a keeper league there is nothing to consider at QB for the Vikings.  Christian Ponder may be a serviceable fantasy QB in the future, but he is not ready in 2011.  The Vikings are expected to pursue a veteran free agent to lead their offense and groom Ponder, but regardless of whether that ends up being Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger or someone else they have no spot on your fantasy team. 

Adrian Peterson is arguably the top player in fantasy football and will be leaned on heavily to carry the load for the Vikings offense.  Peterson's numbers were down last year and they may not improve in the upcoming campaign.  With questions at the quarterback position teams will load the line of scrimmage and dare the Vikings to beat them throwing the ball.  Peterson is still an elite performer, but tread lightly and temper your expectations in light of variables out of his control. 

Minnesota has a huge question mark at the receiver position with potential free agent Sidney Rice.  Rice blossomed in 2009 with Brett Favre under center and put up solid numbers last year after returning from a hip injury.  Rice, who turns 25 in September, could be one of the most highly sought after free agents when the owners and players reach an agreement, but will likely find himself as a restricted free agent.  He was very underwhelming while playing his first two seasons with mediocre QBs and you will have to gauge his ranking based on his eventual landing spot and the their QB situation. Despite seeming to be on the injury report all of last season, Percy Harvin only missed two games in 2011.  While he is a little less valuable than Rice, Harvin's may not suffer as much with the QB uncertainty due to the role he plays on the Vikings.  Harvin has the explosiveness to score anytime he touches the ball and should be a big part of the Vikes intermediate passing game.  Draft Harvin as a high WR3 with the upside to develop in to more. 

The Vikings used their second round draft pick in April to select TE Kyle Rudolph.  They will likely use a lot of two tight end sets, and will work Rudolph in at the expense of Visanthe Shiancoe.  Neither TE has draft day appeal at this point.  If Rice ends up elsewhere, Shiancoe may emerge as a red zone target, but not much else. 

Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford has not been able to stay healthy in his short two year career.  He has shown flashes when he is on the field and has a strong cast surrounding him.  Stafford would be a good pick for an owner who secures a top tier QB and is looking at upside and a potential trade later in the season. 

Jahvid Best is another back who's value sees an upward tick in PPR leagues.  He only rushed for 551 yards last year, but grabbed 58 balls for an additional 487 yards.  He found the end zone six times rushing last year but may see his goal line opportunities challenged by rookie 2nd round pick Mickel Leshoure.  Leshoure is a power back who will be a solid complementary back for the Lions, but could drive fantasy owners crazy.  Consider Best a shaky RB2 and Leshoure as a late round flier or potential TD vulture. 

Calvin Johnson is an elite fantasy receiver and should be among the top three wideouts off the board in your draft.  Look for Johnson to register a 85/1200/10 season.  He is a solid building block for your fantasy squad having performed regardless of who was under center for the Lions.  Beyond Johnson, the Lions do not have a sure thing at receiver on their roster.  Nate Burleson had a productive season last year and could again be a decent WR4 option.  The Lions drafted Titus Young out of Boise State and expect him to step in and get on the field in his rookie season.  Young figures to spend most of his time working out the slot and has the talent to take some catches from Burleson.  Both guys have the look of waiver wire fodder at this stage. 



Calvin Johnson should be one of
the top three WRs drafted

Brandon Pettigrew had a strong second pro season accumulating a 71/722/4 season.  His size makes him a good red zone option and he may see an increase in his TD total.  Slate him as a low TE1 and enjoy the upside. 

Keep checking back as we work our way around the league and examine the potential fantasy contributors for the upcoming season. 

Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Research Average Draft Positions

You are getting closer to putting together all the tools to have a strong fantasy football draft.  Players are ranked and you have determined drop offs at each positions so that you can capitalize on similarly performing players, now you need to start the process of understanding what others think about the players. 

Understanding ADP will help you answer several questions when trying to evaluate your next pick...

Is their a receiver that I need consider rather than a running back?
When should I take a tight end rather than another receiver?

By researching ADP you can better compare where players are being drafted across the position lines.  In order to have the best grasp on ADP you will need to use the most up to date information.  A magazine can not adequately account for all the changes that take place throughout training camp.  Last year if you thought that you would be able to wait until the last several rounds to grab Arian Foster you would have been disappointed several times over.  ADP will give you an idea of what others are thinking when drafting their teams but there are still other key factors that you have to recognize.  Keep coming back to for more information on how you can prepare to dominate your league by having a strong draft. 

Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Set Position Thresholds

Once you have established the rankings for each position based on your league's scoring system, the next thing you need to do is to determine thresholds at each position.  Thresholds are just a fancy way of saying that you should determine where there is a group of players that you can expect to score similarly and where the drop-offs occur. 

Knowing where the talent drops off at a certain position can be especially useful if you are drafting near either end of your draft.  If you are caught between players at different positions but have determined that you can expect a similar performance out of 3-4 guys at one position and their is a drop off at the other slot you should grab the guy at the bottom of the threshold and know that there will still be a guy that you can live with available when your pick rolls back around. 

The easiest way that I have found to draw these lines is to take my projections, run them through my scoring system and then divide these numbers over sixteen games.  This will give you an idea of a weekly scoring expectation if all things go as planned throughout the season(they won't).  Breaking down the numbers incrementally will allow you to better evaluate actual game by game performances.  Now you have drawn some thin lines that will allow you to more objectively draft players based on the numbers and not the names. 

The next step we will look at will be to know average draft positions of players and understanding what your opponents may be thinking. 

Fantasy Football draft Checklist-Rank Your Players By Position

The most fundamental part of preparing for your draft is to take the time to create your own rankings for each position.  Many of your lesser opponents will merely pick up a magazine that catches their eye and adopt those rankings as their own.  The problem with relying on a magazine for your rankings is that, unless you are drafting in June, those rankings do not account for many changes that take place between publication and your draft day.  Another problem with using the rankings straight from a magazine, or any other source for that matter, is that they may not be using the same scoring system as your league uses to establish projections.  There are a variety of scoring systems that are popular and a slight variation in the scoring system could completely sway how you slot your players. 

So if grabbing a magazine on the way to your draft isn't a good system, how do you go about establishing your own player rankings?  The first thing you need to do is to understand your scoring system.  Once you have a good grasp on your league's scoring, I suggest you put a spreadsheet together so that you can calculate player  projections that are customized with your score system in mind. 

Another key to accurate projections is to use several sources. It is not unusual for me to grab two or three magazines and then consult my favorite websites frequently right up until draft day.  This will allow you to have a variety of perspectives and will cancel out one source who may favor or dislike a particular player.  By using websites that update projections throughout training camp and preseason games you will be able to adjust your projections for injuries, timeshares, or sleepers.  These subtle adjustments will allow you to capitalize in the mid rounds where you are building your team's depth and the keys to a winning team. 

Fantasy Football Draft Checklist

Preparation for your fantasy football draft is as important as anything else you will do for the upcoming season.  So, over the next several posts I will review the keys to prepare for a successful draft.  Regardless of the type of approach you take to your draft the more prepared you are the better you should pick.

What are the steps you need to take to properly prepare for your draft?

Rank Players by Position

Set Position Thresholds

Research Average Draft Position(ADP)

Know your league

Check your heart at the door

Be flexible

Check back throughout the week for a breakdown on each category so that you can go to your draft with confidence that you have done all your homework and leave your draft knowing that you have a competitive team. 

2011 NFL Free Agent WR Analysis

Here is a look at the top wide receivers who may find themselves on a new team when the 2011 NFL gets under way.  I believe the majority of the top tier receivers will be retained by their current team, but second tier guys like James Jones, and Steve Breaston will likely look to take the next step in their careers' by moving to a new team. 

1-Sidney Rice-Rice rebounded from a hip injury last season and put up solid numbers after he returned to the Vikings lineup.  Minnesota would be well served to resign Rice but I expect him to move onto to St. Louis and pair with Sam Bradford as a formidable fantasy duo. 

2-Vincent Jackson-The Chargers put up with V-Jax' holdout last year and after he returned he put up solid numbers.  The Chargers have said all the right things since the season and appear to be likely to give Jackson a hefty payday to remain the teams number one target for Phillip Rivers. 

3-Santonio Holmes-The Jets have some real questions at the receiver position and Holmes is clearly the most reliable target and top priority.  Holmes is a solid route runner, has good speed and great hands and is far too valuable to the Jets for them to let him land elsewhere. 

4-Braylon Edwards-I fully expect Edwards to spend the 2011 season somewhere other than NY, but it is difficult to pair him up with a specific team at this point.  Some suggest he may land in Carolina and while picking up a solid veteran offensive threat would go a long way to appease Steve Smith, a long standing feud with Panthers CB Chris Gamble and the team's need to develop Cam Newton without the drama and distraction a player like Edwards can provide will likely be enough to keep him from becoming a Panther. 

5-Mike Sims-Walker-Have a conversation about frustrating fantasy football wideouts and it is hard to not start with Sims-Walker.  He has the tools and body to be a solid receiver but has proven to be very inconsistent.  The Jags don't have much else and would like to keep him but I would not be surprised to see Sims-Walker land in KC and team up beside Dwayne Bowe.  The ability to play the role of the number two target would take a lot of pressure off of Sims-Walker and would likely temper fantasy football expectations for him. 

2011 NFL Free Agent RB Analysis

Today we take a look at the running backs who may be on the move when the NFL free agency details get sorted out. 

1-Deangelo Williams-Williams is on record saying that he would like to stay with the Panthers but as a twenty-eight year old  free agent this offseason will be his best (and last) chance to cash in on a BIG contract.  The Panthers will push to keep him, but will not overpay with Jonathan Stewart, Tyrell Sutton and Mike Goodson on the roster.  Look for Williams to land in Miami if money wins out over loyalty.  With the Dolphins Williams would be a virtual lock for 1,100 yards and 6-8TDs.

2-Ahmad Bradshaw-Bradshaw blossomed last year when the Giants gave him a heavier workload over Brandon Jacobs.  Jacobs was outspoken over his diminished role, but at this stage Bradshaw is clearly the more productive back.  Expect the Giants to resign Bradshaw and have him split time with Danny Ware and rookie Da'Rel Scott.  If Bradshaw can do a better job taking care of the ball, (he lost six fumbles in 2010) he has all the makings of  a solid fantasy running back. 

3-Joseph Addai-Addai has been rather underwhelming of late for the Colts. He is constantly banged up and should not be expected for more than 12-13 games per season.  Addai could benefit from a change of scenery and may fit in well in the Broncos backfield alongside Knowshon Moreno.  Expect Mike Hart and Donald Brown to battle for the starting job in Indy. 

4-Michael Bush-Darren McFadden's breakout season will likely result in the departure of Bush from Oakland.  The Raiders may wish to retain Bush due to McFadden's injury history but expect Bush to seek a starting job elsewhere.  The Redskins could benefit from a big, bruising back and Bush could step right in and take over for Clinton Portis.  Ryan Torrain performed well last year in spot duty, but Bush has the better toolset of the two. 

5-Mike Tolbert-Tolbert stepped in admirably last year for banged up, rookie Ryan Mathews.  He is set to be a restricted free agent and the Chargers have been very clear that they intend on seeing him lining up in the Bolts backfield next season.  Tolbert and Mathews could team up to be a strong split backfield in San Diego...the kind that fantasy players hate! 

6-Cedric Benson-Benson resurrected his career in Cincy and appears to be a solid team leader now.  His yards per carry aren't pretty, but given the state of the Bengals offense he may be leaned upon heavily and pile up yards anyway.  I expect Benson will be back with the Bengals, but with all of their unanswered questions he is no longer a week to week reliable fantasy back. 

Other notables:
Darren Sproles
Ronnie Brown
Le'ron McClain
Kevin Smith
Reggie Bush

2011 NFL Free Agent QB Analysis

Here is quick look at the potential free agent (and others who are rumored to be on the move) QBs, a predicted landing spot and the fantasy football implications.

1-Peyton Manning-Looking for a shocking prediction on where Manning lands in free agency?  You're not going to get it from me.  My best prediction is that Manning is back with the Colts.  The bigger fantasy football questions here are will Peyton take less money to make the Colts more competitive, how do the Colts spend that money and do those potential other signings translate into fantasy production?  Oh, and let's hope that Peyton doesn't hurt his back carrying all that money to the bank!

2-Michael Vick-The Eagles put the franchise tag on Vick and appear ready to sign him to a contract when the lockout is settled.  Expect Vick to be an Eagle for the next several years.  He seems to have matured as a player and is a dual threat to pass or run on every snap.  He can be an injury risk and his ability to take a game over can sometimes lead to his teamates' fantasy production suffering. 

3-Kevin Kolb-while he is not a free agent Kolb has attracted a lot of potential trade attention and would likely have been a draft day trade were it not for the lockout.  While Kolb was linked to the Cardinals early, the Seahawks now appear to be a likely landing spot.  If Pete Carroll elects to let Matt Hasselbeck go elsewhere it is hard to imagine him handing the reigns over to Charlie Whitehurst.  Unless another team steps up with a significant offer look for Kolb to be relocating to the Pacific Northwest this fall.  Until Kolb puts it together on the field for a full season it is hard to consider him much more than a solid fantasy backup with upside. 

4-Matt Hasselbeck-I can't see Pete Carroll resigning Hasselbeck considering the overhaul he started making in the Seahawks roster last season. Tennessee has been successful in the past with Kerry Collins by employing a veteran to hold the reigns for a couple of years while a young QB is groomed, so Hasslebeck could land with the Titans.  It has been years since Hasslebeck has been relevant to the fantasy game, but his veteran leadership and ability to keep teams honest could help Chris Johnson until Jake Locker is ready to take over.

The NFL Lockout's Effect on Fantasy Football

Lately, you can't watch more than a couple minutes of sports without hearing the oversimplified explanation of the current NFL lockout described as "billionaires fighting with millionaires over how to divide $9 billion."  Lost below the surface are the effects that the lockout is having on the $800 million per year industry of fantasy football.  It only takes a stroll down the magazine aisle to notice that the normal litany of the self proclaimed best fantasy football magazines are absent.  But what does that mean for you as a die hard fantasy football player?

The first thing the lockout means is that you will be forced to utilize different sources for your rankings and information, and I would argue that this is the best thing that could ever happen to you.  The 2010 rushing leader Arian Foster was drafted in the last couple of rounds of most magazine's mock drafts last year, but was selected in the 6th round of the league I play in...why?  A lot changes between June and late August.  Because the fantasy football industry has become so popular and competitive, there is a mad rush to get a product on the newsstands first.  Much of the information is incomplete or inaccurate by the time your draft rolls around.  The effects of a key rookie holdout, pivotal free agent signing, a significant injury or recovery all can throw a serious wrinkle in your draft day plans.  Raise your hand if you drafted Julian Edelman last year because you were sure Wes Welker wasn't going to be back on the field until mid season.  So if you want a magazine for basic guidance and depth information, by all means get it but make sure you find some reliable websites that stay on top of all the signings, injuries, and depth chart battles and what they mean to your rankings. 

The other repercussion of the NFL lockout on fantasy football is much more complex.  The reason those magazines are not going to publication is that there is far too much to unresolved in regards to player movement to allow them to make predictions and observations.  With the normal start of training camps less than a month away we still haven't had free agency.  Worse still is that we aren't even sure what free agency rules will be when an agreement is reached.  Over the next several days we will take a look at the key potential key free agents at each position, potential landing spots and the fantasy football implications.  While we can't be sure when an agreement will be reached and what that will mean to the upcoming season at least you can get a little relief familiarizing yourself with the players who may be on the move in the coming weeks.