Where Plaxico Burress Will Not Play In 2011

Much has been made in recent weeks over the release of Plaxico Burress from jail and where he might end up playing in 2011.  The truth of the matter is that I don't know what team will take a chance on Burress, but I do know one team that won't...I can not imagine any circumstances where I would have Plaxico Burress on my fantasy football team in the coming year.

I get the sense in watching interviews with Burress that he is truly contrite for his actions that landed him in jail, and I hope he comes back and performs well, but that doesn't change the fact that he will be a 34-year old receiver, battling to learn a new system in a (likely)shortened training camp who hasn't played a snap in the last two seasons. 

The first thing to consider when evaluating Burress is what team he will end up playing for.  When the labor dispute is settled and free agency kicks in the market will be full of possible receivers for teams to pursue.  Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Sidney Rice, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio Holmes headline a list of free agents and will garner more attention from teams.  Combine those wideouts with others like Steve Smith(Carolina), and Chad Ochocinco who may be traded or released and Burress is suddenly an afterthought for a team who misses out on the receiver bonanza. 

Should Burress land with Eagles, like many have suggested where would he fit in?  The Eagles have a young, deep receiving corp lead by DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant and Riley Cooper.  Burress may like his throwback Phillies cap, but don't look for him in an Eagles helmet this season. 

There are two teams that Burress mentioned wanting to play for; the Houston Texans and NY Jets.  The Houston Texans appear to be set at receiver with Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and RFA Jacoby Jones all set to return to the team.  It is hard to see the Texans viewing Burress as an upgrade over Walter or Jones at this stage of his career. 

The Jets have their own issues at receiver, but will likely retain Santonio Holmes.  Brad Smith and Braylon Edwards may end up elsewhere and could open up the door for Burress to return to the Big Apple.  Landing back in NY is the best scenario among the teams that have been mentioned as possible destinations for Burress.   

But once he is able to latch on to a team, what kind of production can you expect?  When he logged ten games with the Giants in 2008, Burress stats were 35/454/4.  IF Burress latches on with the right team, IF Burress earns a starting job, IF Burress can stay healthy and play sixteen games and IF Burress can perform at 80% of his '08 stats, his line only reads 45/581/5. Do you really have a spot on your team for three catches for 40 yards a game with a TD every third week? 

Even in Burress' best year with the Giants in 2007 he had nine games with four catches or less and was held to less than fifty yards nine times.  You learned to live with the disappearing act knowing that Burress was likely to occasionally spring up and have a eight catch game for more than one hundred yards with a TD.  In 2011 I believe you will get burnt by playing Burress far more often than you will have him lead your team to a win. 

Burress will likely return to the NFL in 2011, and may even contribute to a team,  but he should have no place on your fantasy football roster. 

2011 NFL Free Agent WR Analysis

Here is a look at the top wide receivers who may find themselves on a new team when the 2011 NFL gets under way.  I believe the majority of the top tier receivers will be retained by their current team, but second tier guys like James Jones, and Steve Breaston will likely look to take the next step in their careers' by moving to a new team. 

1-Sidney Rice-Rice rebounded from a hip injury last season and put up solid numbers after he returned to the Vikings lineup.  Minnesota would be well served to resign Rice but I expect him to move onto to St. Louis and pair with Sam Bradford as a formidable fantasy duo. 

2-Vincent Jackson-The Chargers put up with V-Jax' holdout last year and after he returned he put up solid numbers.  The Chargers have said all the right things since the season and appear to be likely to give Jackson a hefty payday to remain the teams number one target for Phillip Rivers. 

3-Santonio Holmes-The Jets have some real questions at the receiver position and Holmes is clearly the most reliable target and top priority.  Holmes is a solid route runner, has good speed and great hands and is far too valuable to the Jets for them to let him land elsewhere. 

4-Braylon Edwards-I fully expect Edwards to spend the 2011 season somewhere other than NY, but it is difficult to pair him up with a specific team at this point.  Some suggest he may land in Carolina and while picking up a solid veteran offensive threat would go a long way to appease Steve Smith, a long standing feud with Panthers CB Chris Gamble and the team's need to develop Cam Newton without the drama and distraction a player like Edwards can provide will likely be enough to keep him from becoming a Panther. 

5-Mike Sims-Walker-Have a conversation about frustrating fantasy football wideouts and it is hard to not start with Sims-Walker.  He has the tools and body to be a solid receiver but has proven to be very inconsistent.  The Jags don't have much else and would like to keep him but I would not be surprised to see Sims-Walker land in KC and team up beside Dwayne Bowe.  The ability to play the role of the number two target would take a lot of pressure off of Sims-Walker and would likely temper fantasy football expectations for him.