I get the sense in watching interviews with Burress that he is truly contrite for his actions that landed him in jail, and I hope he comes back and performs well, but that doesn't change the fact that he will be a 34-year old receiver, battling to learn a new system in a (likely)shortened training camp who hasn't played a snap in the last two seasons.
The first thing to consider when evaluating Burress is what team he will end up playing for. When the labor dispute is settled and free agency kicks in the market will be full of possible receivers for teams to pursue. Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Sidney Rice, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio Holmes headline a list of free agents and will garner more attention from teams. Combine those wideouts with others like Steve Smith(Carolina), and Chad Ochocinco who may be traded or released and Burress is suddenly an afterthought for a team who misses out on the receiver bonanza.
Should Burress land with Eagles, like many have suggested where would he fit in? The Eagles have a young, deep receiving corp lead by DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant and Riley Cooper. Burress may like his throwback Phillies cap, but don't look for him in an Eagles helmet this season.
There are two teams that Burress mentioned wanting to play for; the Houston Texans and NY Jets. The Houston Texans appear to be set at receiver with Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and RFA Jacoby Jones all set to return to the team. It is hard to see the Texans viewing Burress as an upgrade over Walter or Jones at this stage of his career.
The Jets have their own issues at receiver, but will likely retain Santonio Holmes. Brad Smith and Braylon Edwards may end up elsewhere and could open up the door for Burress to return to the Big Apple. Landing back in NY is the best scenario among the teams that have been mentioned as possible destinations for Burress.
But once he is able to latch on to a team, what kind of production can you expect? When he logged ten games with the Giants in 2008, Burress stats were 35/454/4. IF Burress latches on with the right team, IF Burress earns a starting job, IF Burress can stay healthy and play sixteen games and IF Burress can perform at 80% of his '08 stats, his line only reads 45/581/5. Do you really have a spot on your team for three catches for 40 yards a game with a TD every third week?
Even in Burress' best year with the Giants in 2007 he had nine games with four catches or less and was held to less than fifty yards nine times. You learned to live with the disappearing act knowing that Burress was likely to occasionally spring up and have a eight catch game for more than one hundred yards with a TD. In 2011 I believe you will get burnt by playing Burress far more often than you will have him lead your team to a win.
Burress will likely return to the NFL in 2011, and may even contribute to a team, but he should have no place on your fantasy football roster.
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