AFC South-Fantasy Football Do's And Don'ts

We are building up some steam with the recent free agent frenzy and you can feel football in the air.  Here is look at the players in the AFC South who you need to be familiar with as you prepare for your draft.

Houston Texans
The Texans have an explosive offense capable of hurting you on the ground or through the air.  Matt Schaub is a safe second tier pick for your fantasy quarterback.  He racked up over 4,000 yards and had more than 24 passing TDs for the second consecutive year in 2010.  His numbers were down a tick with the emergence of Arian Foster but the balanced attack will loosen defenses up and allow Schaub more space to work with.  Another 4,300/25 season is within reach for Schaub.



Arian Foster will not last until the
middle of your fantasy draft this season

 Arian Foster was the fantasy surprise of the year in 2010.  He won't slip to the middle of your draft this year and may even be the first overall selection.  Even more impressive than Foster's 1,600 rushing yards were his 66 catches for over 600 yards out of the backfield.  His projections in PPR leagues probably translate in to him being the number one back in your league.  There are bigger names, but Foster may be the better pick.  Ben Tate is a capable backup and a good handcuff pick for Foster owners.   

Andre Johnson's catches and yards were very similar to the previous two years despite the fact that he missed three games in 2010.  Like Foster, Johnson is the top player at his position.  You can draft Johnson late in the first round after the run on backs and quarterbacks and pencil him in for his typical productive season.  Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are solid but unspectacular.  Neither are worth drafting but keep them on your radar through the season as possible waiver wire adds. 

How many years can a player be deemed a sleeper, before you are forced to accept that maybe he is in a coma?  Owen Daniels has the tools to be a top tier tight end but he just can't stay healthy and put together one full, productive season.  He should be drafted as a low tier starter but you may want to quickly back him up given his injury history. 

Indianapolis Colts


Will off season neck surgery slow
Peyton Manning in 2011?

 For the first time in recent memory we enter the season with many questions surrounding Peyton Manning.  Manning will enter the season coming off neck surgery and will likely miss much of the preseason while he recovers.  I would never suggest that he needs the reps but the conditioning and timing with his receivers can not be understated.  Manning should still be a low top tier QB, but don't be surprised if his early season production is a little less than normal. 

Will this be the year that Joseph Addai moves on and gives way to Donald Brown, or does Addai still have a little gas in the tank?  The two backs put up nearly identical numbers last year and either of them could emerge in 2011.  If one of the two steps up and claims the starting job they would be a decent option for a RB3 slot on your team, but not much else.  Addai may end up being cut and that would open the door for Brown to claim the job outright, so keep a close eye on the developments.

Reggie Wayne put up his normal, solid fantasy star numbers in 2010 and should be counted on for consistency at the receiver slot once again.  His numbers will likely be down slightly, but he is very dependable.  Expect a 85/1,200/8 season from Wayne who is slowly creeping out of his prime.  Pierre Garcon is the current beneficiary of being the number two wideout with Peyton Manning as his quarterback.  If Garcon can get past his case of the drops from last season he has the potential to be a good WR3 on your team.  Austin Collie was a huge surprise last year before suffering three concussions.  He has good potential and could be a sleeper pick, but be aware that another concussion could end his season or career. 

Dallas Clark should return as a top tier tight end after recovering from an injury that cost him much of the 2010 season.  Clark is a favorite target of Manning's and could register close to 100 receptions if he stays healthy.  He may be undervalued due to his injury last season, but you can draft him with confidence as a top three tight end. 

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags drafted Blaine Gabbert with the intention of having his as their QB of the future.  David Garrard will likely start most of the 2011 season.  Neither option will have fantasy value this season. 

Expect another solid year for MJD

Maurice Jones-Drew had his second straight 1,300 yard season but he saw his TDs drop from 15 to 5.  He is a solid second tier back and will be looked on to carry the load for the Jags again this year.  MJD's catches were also down last year, but he may see a pickup in receptions with the lack of off season workouts for teams due to the lockout. 

Mike Sims-Walker is wildly inconsistent and disappeared for stretches last year.  He suffered through three games where he didn't even register a catch.  I can't trust him and can't suggest that you do either.  Pass on Sims-Walker and let someone else pull their hair out from week to week.  Mike Thomas is a decent sleeper option and could emerge as a WR3 option.  Don't count on him to carry your team, but he will likely fly below the radar and be a good value pick.  The only other solid receiving threat for the Jags is their tight end Marcedes Lewis.  Lewis was especially productive in scoring leagues with a ten TD season in 2010.  Sims-Walker's inconsistency and Thomas' size leave Lewis as the Jags number one red zone target and a candidate for another good season. 

Tenneessee Titans
The Titans agreed to terms with Matt Hasslebeck to be their quarterback for the 2010 and to groom Jake Locker to be the eventual suceesor.  Hasslebeck should not be drafted on draft day but could have value later in the season if you need a capable vet to fill in for injuries. 


Is Chris Johnson #1 overall?


Chris Johnson has a solid argument to be the overall number one pick in your draft.  The new coaching staff has said they intend to utilize Johnson more in the passing game and he will once again be a solid building block for your fantasy squad.  If you are picking in the top three spots in your draft you can't go wrong with Johnson on your team. 

If Kenny Britt is able to avoid suspension with the adoption of the new collective bargining agreement he has high WR2 capability with the talent to project to a WR1 now that he has a decent QB to get him the ball.  Monitor his situation and adjust him down accordingly, depending on the length of any possible suspension.  Jared Cook has the size and talent to emerge as a Antonio Gates type target at tight end.  He hasn't been able to put it together in two seasons, but enters the 2011 season as the primary receiving tight end.  He shouldn't be drafted but he warrrants some attention.  Monitor his early season performances and grab him if he shows he is ready to live up to expectations. 

With all the signings going on the last several days, all your cheatsheets and notes could find themselves obsolete from one minute to the next.  Keep checking back to see how all the moves will effect the fantasy football projections for the coming year.