AFC West-Fantasy Football Do's And Don'ts

Here is a snapshot of the AFC West teams and the key fantasy players who deserve your attention on draft day. 

San Diego Chargers


Philip Rivers will put up top three
QB numbers in 2011

 Philip Rivers will rank near the top of your QB rankings.  He is surrounded by a strong cast of offensive weapons that will give him opportunities that other QBs only dream of.  After posting over 4,700 passing yards with 30 TDs despite the Vincent Jackson drama you can expect similar numbers in 2011.  If you miss out on Rodgers and Brees, grab Rivers and don't feel bad for yourself. 

Ryan Mathews entered the league last year with a lot of promise and expectations.  He put up solid numbers but was hobbled by injuries.  While Mathews was on the shelf the Chargers discovered Mike Tolbert was a capable option in the backfield.  Expect a timeshare with Mathews getting the majority of the carries.  Mathews should be monitored to make sure he bounces back from his injuries and to verify his role as the primary back.  Target him as a strong RB2 if his role develops as expected. 

The Chargers' receiving situation requires a crystal ball to sort out.  Keep an eye on the contract issues with Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd right up until draft day.  If both stay put and are paired with Rivers, Jackson is a strong WR1 option and Floyd is a low end WR2 with upside.  Jackson and Antonio Gates will demand a lot of attention and should shift the coverage to allow Floyd the opportunity to shine.  If Jackson were to end up elsewhere, Floyd shoots up the draft board as a high WR2.  Gates is again atop the list of tight ends.  He missed six games last year but still has the skills, and offense to put up the type of numbers you would normally expect to see from a top tier receiver. 

Denver Broncos


 The Broncos are in a rebuilding mode and have hired John Fox to be their coach going forward.  Fox who is known for his stubbornness in playing vets over younger players will have his natural tendencies challenged in his new post.  The Broncos are expected to look for a trading partner to move Kyle Orton, leaving the door open for Tim Tebow to take over at quarterback.  Tebow's name power will likely result in him being overvalued and drafted before savvy owners are willing to take the chance on his unconventional approach and upside.  He will have success in the right match ups, but I suggest you wait and see how he develops this year and what his role is moving forward. 

Denver's backfield is a mess and may be one of those situations that has to be worked out through the pre-season.  Knoshown Moreno has been criticized for his willingness to put in the work it takes to be an elite back in the NFL.  The Broncos may pursue another running back in free agency to share the load with Moreno.  Fox negotiated a successful RBBC in Carolina with Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stweart and this season may bring more of the same.  Interestingly, if the Panthers elect to not throw a bunch of money at Williams he may be heavily pursued by his old coach and end up lining up in the Bronco's backfield. 

The Broncos receivers are led by Brandon Lloyd.  Lloyd had a terrific year last year with a stat line of 77/1,448/11.  He will anchor their wideouts in 2011 and should be picked as a very high end WR2.  Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney are the other two guys who expect to catch the ball for the Broncos this year.  Neither player is worth investing a whole lot in, but if you are looking for a sleeper wide receiver who has put up good numbers in the past, I would target Royal. 


Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Cassel is an excellent choice for your QB2 slot.  He improved a great deal last year tossing 27 TDs and only 7 interceptions.  For owners who like to take two mid range QBs and play the matchup week to week, Cassel would be a solid option to pursue. 

The Chiefs may keep Thomas Jones around for 2011 and may even  list him as their primary back, but no logical person can justify not feeding Jamaal Charles the ball 20+ times per game.  Despite only three games where he logged more than 20 carries last year Charles managed to have over 1,400 yards on the strength of a 6.4 YPC average.  Expect Charles to get a greater share this year and put up eye popping numbers.  His projections deserve top five status on draft day.

Dwayne Bowe hauled in fifteen TDs last year on his way to a great fantasy football season.  I believe that Bowe has the potential to be a bust in the upcoming season.  He was able to catch only 72 passes last year and with such a gaudy TD total unlikely again(the 15 TDs in 2010 was only one less than his total the last three seasons combined), expect his numbers to take a dip.  He is certainly still a player to target, but don't overvalue him on draft day.  Pick him with the expectation of getting mid WR2 stats.  Unless they may a free agent acquisition no other WR deserves draft day consideration. 

Tony Moeacki had a solid season with 47/556/3 numbers.  He is not worth drafting but could be on your radar in the season for a bye week or injury pickup.     

Oakland Raiders

Darren McFadden will be a popular choice for owners who miss out on the top half of the first round and are looking to grab a solid running back.  McFadden is a strong candidate to build on his 1,000 yard season last year, but his injury history and the Raiders willingness to give the ball to Michael Bush at the goal line are concerning.  McFadden is a strong pass catcher and I would target him as a mid to low RB1 choice.  Keep an eye on what happens to Bush in the pre-season.  He may find his way onto fantasy rosters as a handcuff pick or as a candidate to steal some TDs with those goal line carries. 

Zach Miller has had three consecutive seasons with strong numbers for a second tier tight end.  Pencil him in for 65/700/5 and pick him with confidence.

Two divisions down, six to go.  Keep checking back in for the divisional breakdown of fantasy players around the league.