All the arguments for delaying your fantasy football draft were solidified Friday night when Cardinals rookie running back and sleeper candidate Ryan Williams suffered a season ending injury. Imagine your frustration if you spent an early pick hoping to latch on to a key cog of your fantasy team. That's just a brief commentary on the value of waiting to hold your draft. For the rest of us we are left with the task of deciding the implications of the injury, and how changed roles will affect our projections.
Many owners will simply elevate Chris "Beanie" Wells on their draft boards. While Wells' value certainly gets a tick, I would warn against blindly penciling him in as your RB2. There will always be value for the primary running back on a team in fantasy football, but the real challenge is to properly evaluate and gauge that value. Let's take a look at what we can reasonably expect from Wells in his, possibly, expanded role.
Wells is coming off a forgettable sophomore season where he saw his rushing yards dip below 400 yards and the injury bug paid him visits throughout the year. Wells has a history of battling lingering injuries dating back to his college days at Ohio State. His rookie campaign where he logged sixteen games was encouraging, but likely an anomaly. In thirteen games last year Wells saw his yards per carry drop over a yard per carry to a paltry 3.4 YPC and he only found the end zone twice.
If you play in a PPR league Wells will be a drag on your team in the receiving game as well. In his brief 29 game career Wells has only hauled in seventeen catches. Even if he claims the starting job outright Wells is not a three down back. Wells' regression, injuries and limited skill set are the exact reasons the Cardinals elected to spend an early draft pick on Williams in the first place!
The biggest factor being missed in this situation is that the Cards will likely look to bolster their backfield by adding another back either via trade or by signing a free agent. It is highly unlikely that Wells is the workhorse the entire year. Guys like Clinton Portis, or Laurence Maroney could be on their radar or they may target younger guys via trade like the Panthers' Mike Goodson or the Patriots' BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Goodson has shown promise in limited action and is the odd man out in a talented and crowded backfield in Carolina. Green-Ellis may be expendable for a Pats team who drafted two running backs in the last draft. While a back like Goodson or Green-Ellis would be best for us fantasy owners, the Cardinals are more likely to pursue a veteran at this point in the off season. If they are convinced that Williams is the back of the future it only stands to cause problems in subsequent years if Arizona trades for another young back to join him and Wells.
I expect the Cards to pursue a vet and employ a RBBC or look to play the hot hand as the game plays out. If you a looking for Wells to suddenly carry your fantasy team to the promised land you will likely be disappointed. Move him up your cheatsheets a little but I still wouldn't target him as anything other than a RB3 or flex option. If you are smart you still have some time for this situation to get worked out before you have to draft your team and work through these decisions. Good luck!
Showing posts with label Ryan Williams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Williams. Show all posts
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-NFC West
The 2011 NFL off season has been one of the strangest off seasons in history and the repercussions have trickled over in to the world of fantasy football. With free agency and trades taking place on the heels of training camp and even spilling over in to the start of camp, keeping up with all the movement can be challenging. Here is a division by division rundown of all the notable player moves with fantasy football relevance and how the moves effect the player's value.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals-The Cards accelerated off season saw many fantasy noteworthy players come and go. Arizona hopes to have Kevin Kolb under center and consistently tossing TDs to Larry Fitzgerald for years to come. Kolb is an upgrade for the Cards and is a fringe fantasy starter or high end quality backup. I would approach him with caution and hope to land him as my QB2 and use him as trade bait if he performs up to expectations.
The trade of Tim Hightower thins out a crowded backfield where now Beanie Wells is the undisputed starter. Or is he? The Cards drafted Ryan Williams with the intentions of giving him the opportunity to carry the load. Wells is known to get dinged up and any extended stretch of missed time could mean that he finds himself as Williams' backup. Avoid Wells and consider Williams as a late round flier who could be a solid contributor if he claims the starting role. Arizona's backfield has the looks of a RBBC and you should temper your expectations for either player barring an injury.
Todd Heap is looking to end his career closer to home and joins the Cards as their starting tight end. Heap is a reliable, but unspectacular option. At this stage in this career he is nothing more than a fantasy reserve, but you aren't carrying two tight ends on your roster, are you?!
San Francisco 49ERs-Braylon Edwards joins a Niners team who has several questions with their receivers. Will Michael Crabtree mature and take advantage of all the talent that he possesses? Can Ted Ginn contribute as a wide receiver? Edwards signed a one year deal and will be playing this year for his next contract. Expect him to put up decent WR3 numbers. His background, work ethic and new surroundings will probably result in him being slightly undervalued. If you grab two dependable wideouts early don't feel bad about adding Edwards to round out your starters.
St. Louis Rams-The Rams only notable addition this off season was wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker. Sims-Walker has hauled in seven TDs in each of the last two years and should be a valuable red zone target for Sam Bradford. Consider Sims-Walker a quality backup, but with the Rams' muddled receiver situation he may have a increased role and value.
Seattle Seahawks-The Seahawks added a couple of quality pass catchers and Tavaris Jackson at quarterback. Zach Miller is a quality tight end but his fantasy value will take a hit now that he has left the Raiders' tight end friendly passing game. Miller has the look of a fringe starter or quality backup now that he is a Seahawk.
Sidney Rice flourished with Brett Favre at quarterback after suffering through forgettable seasons with Jackson at QB. But for some reason Rice followed his former Vikings teammate to the Pacific Northwest. Rice's value stands to be as a low end WR2 given his talent, but he could have some disappointing stretches given the possibility of the Seahawk's shaky quarterback play.
NFC West
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| Kevin Kolb |
The trade of Tim Hightower thins out a crowded backfield where now Beanie Wells is the undisputed starter. Or is he? The Cards drafted Ryan Williams with the intentions of giving him the opportunity to carry the load. Wells is known to get dinged up and any extended stretch of missed time could mean that he finds himself as Williams' backup. Avoid Wells and consider Williams as a late round flier who could be a solid contributor if he claims the starting role. Arizona's backfield has the looks of a RBBC and you should temper your expectations for either player barring an injury.
Todd Heap is looking to end his career closer to home and joins the Cards as their starting tight end. Heap is a reliable, but unspectacular option. At this stage in this career he is nothing more than a fantasy reserve, but you aren't carrying two tight ends on your roster, are you?!
San Francisco 49ERs-Braylon Edwards joins a Niners team who has several questions with their receivers. Will Michael Crabtree mature and take advantage of all the talent that he possesses? Can Ted Ginn contribute as a wide receiver? Edwards signed a one year deal and will be playing this year for his next contract. Expect him to put up decent WR3 numbers. His background, work ethic and new surroundings will probably result in him being slightly undervalued. If you grab two dependable wideouts early don't feel bad about adding Edwards to round out your starters.
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| Mike Sims-Walker |
Seattle Seahawks-The Seahawks added a couple of quality pass catchers and Tavaris Jackson at quarterback. Zach Miller is a quality tight end but his fantasy value will take a hit now that he has left the Raiders' tight end friendly passing game. Miller has the look of a fringe starter or quality backup now that he is a Seahawk.
Sidney Rice flourished with Brett Favre at quarterback after suffering through forgettable seasons with Jackson at QB. But for some reason Rice followed his former Vikings teammate to the Pacific Northwest. Rice's value stands to be as a low end WR2 given his talent, but he could have some disappointing stretches given the possibility of the Seahawk's shaky quarterback play.
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