All the arguments for delaying your fantasy football draft were solidified Friday night when Cardinals rookie running back and sleeper candidate Ryan Williams suffered a season ending injury. Imagine your frustration if you spent an early pick hoping to latch on to a key cog of your fantasy team. That's just a brief commentary on the value of waiting to hold your draft. For the rest of us we are left with the task of deciding the implications of the injury, and how changed roles will affect our projections.
Many owners will simply elevate Chris "Beanie" Wells on their draft boards. While Wells' value certainly gets a tick, I would warn against blindly penciling him in as your RB2. There will always be value for the primary running back on a team in fantasy football, but the real challenge is to properly evaluate and gauge that value. Let's take a look at what we can reasonably expect from Wells in his, possibly, expanded role.
Wells is coming off a forgettable sophomore season where he saw his rushing yards dip below 400 yards and the injury bug paid him visits throughout the year. Wells has a history of battling lingering injuries dating back to his college days at Ohio State. His rookie campaign where he logged sixteen games was encouraging, but likely an anomaly. In thirteen games last year Wells saw his yards per carry drop over a yard per carry to a paltry 3.4 YPC and he only found the end zone twice.
If you play in a PPR league Wells will be a drag on your team in the receiving game as well. In his brief 29 game career Wells has only hauled in seventeen catches. Even if he claims the starting job outright Wells is not a three down back. Wells' regression, injuries and limited skill set are the exact reasons the Cardinals elected to spend an early draft pick on Williams in the first place!
The biggest factor being missed in this situation is that the Cards will likely look to bolster their backfield by adding another back either via trade or by signing a free agent. It is highly unlikely that Wells is the workhorse the entire year. Guys like Clinton Portis, or Laurence Maroney could be on their radar or they may target younger guys via trade like the Panthers' Mike Goodson or the Patriots' BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Goodson has shown promise in limited action and is the odd man out in a talented and crowded backfield in Carolina. Green-Ellis may be expendable for a Pats team who drafted two running backs in the last draft. While a back like Goodson or Green-Ellis would be best for us fantasy owners, the Cardinals are more likely to pursue a veteran at this point in the off season. If they are convinced that Williams is the back of the future it only stands to cause problems in subsequent years if Arizona trades for another young back to join him and Wells.
I expect the Cards to pursue a vet and employ a RBBC or look to play the hot hand as the game plays out. If you a looking for Wells to suddenly carry your fantasy team to the promised land you will likely be disappointed. Move him up your cheatsheets a little but I still wouldn't target him as anything other than a RB3 or flex option. If you are smart you still have some time for this situation to get worked out before you have to draft your team and work through these decisions. Good luck!
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-AFC North
While some teams were very active during the off season other teams made few changes. Here is a look at teams in the AFC North, their new roster and what the changes could mean for your fantasy football prep.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens-Ray Rice's value got a boost when the Ravens signed fullback Vonta Leach to open holes for him to wiggle through. Rice is already a top five back and this move just solidifies his position as such.
Lee Evans was acquired in a trade with the Bills and he should step right in and start opposite Anquan Boldin. Evans no longer is a fantasy starter but his new setting and role project him as a quality backup and good WR4 option.
Cleveland Browns-The Browns really made no significant moves to affect your fantasy football consideration. Brandon Jackson joins Cleveland and should be in the back of your head if he can win the backup job away from Montario Hardesty and if Peyton Hillis were to get injured.
Cincinnati Bengals-If I have to find something to write about the Bengals and their spot in fantasy football, and it can't be to start your players against them, then I will have to focus on their first round draft pick AJ Green. Green enters the NFL with high expectations and with the departure of Chad Ochocinco the door is wide open for Green to start and contribute. What those contributions amount to remains a major question mark.
The Bengals look to have rookie Andy Dalton starting at quarterback and early indications are that he will be challenged to stay upright and throw the ball to anybody. Green will be overvalued and a trendy pick due to name recognition but I don't expect more than a 55/700/6 type season. If you can grab Green as a reserve go for it, but you will likely have to overpay to have him on your fantasy team this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers-The Steelers signed former Jet Jericho Cotchery last week and he joins a crowded receiving corp. Cotchery could have value as a vet possession receiver if he is able to get on the field regularly. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are entrenched and will get the primary targets. I wouldn't draft Cotchery, but keep him on a short list of candidates to add should he come out strong early.
AFC North
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| Ray Rice |
Lee Evans was acquired in a trade with the Bills and he should step right in and start opposite Anquan Boldin. Evans no longer is a fantasy starter but his new setting and role project him as a quality backup and good WR4 option.
Cleveland Browns-The Browns really made no significant moves to affect your fantasy football consideration. Brandon Jackson joins Cleveland and should be in the back of your head if he can win the backup job away from Montario Hardesty and if Peyton Hillis were to get injured.
Cincinnati Bengals-If I have to find something to write about the Bengals and their spot in fantasy football, and it can't be to start your players against them, then I will have to focus on their first round draft pick AJ Green. Green enters the NFL with high expectations and with the departure of Chad Ochocinco the door is wide open for Green to start and contribute. What those contributions amount to remains a major question mark.
The Bengals look to have rookie Andy Dalton starting at quarterback and early indications are that he will be challenged to stay upright and throw the ball to anybody. Green will be overvalued and a trendy pick due to name recognition but I don't expect more than a 55/700/6 type season. If you can grab Green as a reserve go for it, but you will likely have to overpay to have him on your fantasy team this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers-The Steelers signed former Jet Jericho Cotchery last week and he joins a crowded receiving corp. Cotchery could have value as a vet possession receiver if he is able to get on the field regularly. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are entrenched and will get the primary targets. I wouldn't draft Cotchery, but keep him on a short list of candidates to add should he come out strong early.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-NFC North
Not a whole lot changed in the NFC North to affect your fantasy football projections. Here is a look at the moves and what they mean.
NFC North
Chicago Bears-The only significant addition that the Bears made was to add former Cowboys back Marion Barber. Barber could have value in deep, scoring leagues and may steal some red zone carries from Matt Forte. His days as an everyday back are past but should Forte go down, you could do worse than an experienced player like Barber.
Detroit Lions-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
Green Bay Packers-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
Minnesota Vikings-Donovan McNabb finds himself on his third team in three years. The Vikes game plan will be to rely on Adrian Peterson and the running game, but McNabb will have to be an effective passer to keep defenses honest. His receivers aren't very impressive, but when has McNabb ever had above average receivers? McNabb is a dependable backup, but don't expect great results.
NFC North
Chicago Bears-The only significant addition that the Bears made was to add former Cowboys back Marion Barber. Barber could have value in deep, scoring leagues and may steal some red zone carries from Matt Forte. His days as an everyday back are past but should Forte go down, you could do worse than an experienced player like Barber.
Detroit Lions-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
Green Bay Packers-No transactions relevant to fantasy football
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| Donovan McNabb |
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-AFC South
AFC South
The Texans and Colts enter the 2011 season with very little changes to their roster that will affect your fantasy football choices on draft day. Here is a look at the Jags and Titans and the moves they made.
Jacksonville Jaguars-The Jags saw Mike Sims-Walker leave this off season and now the door is open for another receiver to step and claim a prominent role. Mike Thomas seems like the best candidate to put have a solid fantasy season. If you take the approach that someone has to catch the ball for the Jags then you will want to roll the dice on Thomas and snag him as a WR4 option for your team.
Jason Hill should get the starting nod opposite Thomas but is a long shot to put up quality numbers. Hill's four year cumulative numbers only add up to that of a bottom tier fantasy reserve. I only mention him here as a guy to have on your radar should he demonstrate the ability to perform in his new starting role.
Tennessee Titans-The Titans parted ways with Vince Young and look to start a rebuilding process lead by their first round draft pick Jake Locker. Ideally, Locker will be allowed to sit and learn this season and the Titans signed QB Matt Hasselbeck in hopes of having him mentor Locker. Hasselbeck will not register on fantasy rosters this season, but his presence helps stabilize the offense and will boost the value of Kenny Britt. Britt appears to have avoided a suspension for his off season troubles and if he can keep his nose clean throughout the season he should be a dependable WR2 in most formats. Britt is a big play receiver and has slightly lower value in PPR leagues, but he should turn in 65/1,100/11 numbers this season.
Keep an eye Chris Johnson's holdout and be prepared to give some consideration to Javon Ringer or Jamie Harper should this contract mess drag on. Both have shown flashes and could have fantasy value if they are able to steal a few starts away.
The Texans and Colts enter the 2011 season with very little changes to their roster that will affect your fantasy football choices on draft day. Here is a look at the Jags and Titans and the moves they made.
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| Mike Thomas |
Jason Hill should get the starting nod opposite Thomas but is a long shot to put up quality numbers. Hill's four year cumulative numbers only add up to that of a bottom tier fantasy reserve. I only mention him here as a guy to have on your radar should he demonstrate the ability to perform in his new starting role.
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| Kenny Britt |
Keep an eye Chris Johnson's holdout and be prepared to give some consideration to Javon Ringer or Jamie Harper should this contract mess drag on. Both have shown flashes and could have fantasy value if they are able to steal a few starts away.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Fantasy Football Movers & Shakers-NFC East
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys-America's team was quiet on the acquisition front during the off season. The signing of Roy Williams with the Bears just solidifies Dez Bryant's role as the second receiver alongside Miles Austin. Bryant was clearly more talented than Williams but Williams' contract kept him on the field. Bryant finds himself with one less receiver to compete for targets with.
NY Giants-The Giants also did not make any notable acquisitions. Two departures will open up the door for existing players to step up and have a bigger role. Steve Smith was allowed to sign with the Eagles and with his injury would not have been available to contribute early in the season anyway. Mario Manningham expects to have a more prominent role and could eclipse the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his career. Manningham will be a value as your WR3.
The departure of of Kevin Boss thrusts Travis Beckum in as the starting Giants' tight end. Beckum is not the receiver that the departed Kevin Boss is but he will get the opportunity to step in as the starter this year. Unless he is a real surprise early in the year and proves to be a viable receiver Beckhum doesn't belong on your team.
Philadephia Eagles-The Eagles have made quite a splash in free agency signing several players bolstering their chances at making a deep playoff run and Super Bowl title. Nnamdi Asomugha was the big free agent prize and his presence propels the Eagles defense in to a top five fantasy defense.
The other signings look to have far less fantasy repercussions. Ronnie Brown signed and is a capable backup for LeSean McCoy. McCoy has only missed one game in his first two season, but Brown could be a valuable handcuff pick should McCoy suffer an injury.
The Steve Smith signing will likely have no bearing on your fantasy roster. Even if Smith can recover and get healthy he will have a hard time finding his way on to the field. He finds himself behind DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant and possibly Riley Cooper. Should Maclin's mystery illness be serious and the Eagles suffer another injury then Smith may warrant waiver consideration, but otherwise let someone else take the chance.
Washington Redskins-The team once recognized for treating free agency as fantasy football was unusually reasonable this off season. Tim Hightower was acquired and is competing for the starting running back job. He has had a good camp and performed well in the team's first preseason game. If Hightower continues to impress in the preseason games his stock will likely rise beyond a draft position of value for a guy who could lose his starting position at any point. Hightower's history of fumbles and Mike Shanahan's history of turning relative unknowns into 1,000 rushers could spell trouble. However, if Hightower can keep a grasp on the starting job the Skins' quarterback play is not intimidating and they may rely on the running game to maintain ball control and stay in games this year.
Dallas Cowboys-America's team was quiet on the acquisition front during the off season. The signing of Roy Williams with the Bears just solidifies Dez Bryant's role as the second receiver alongside Miles Austin. Bryant was clearly more talented than Williams but Williams' contract kept him on the field. Bryant finds himself with one less receiver to compete for targets with.
NY Giants-The Giants also did not make any notable acquisitions. Two departures will open up the door for existing players to step up and have a bigger role. Steve Smith was allowed to sign with the Eagles and with his injury would not have been available to contribute early in the season anyway. Mario Manningham expects to have a more prominent role and could eclipse the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his career. Manningham will be a value as your WR3.
The departure of of Kevin Boss thrusts Travis Beckum in as the starting Giants' tight end. Beckum is not the receiver that the departed Kevin Boss is but he will get the opportunity to step in as the starter this year. Unless he is a real surprise early in the year and proves to be a viable receiver Beckhum doesn't belong on your team.
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| Nnamdi Asomugha |
The other signings look to have far less fantasy repercussions. Ronnie Brown signed and is a capable backup for LeSean McCoy. McCoy has only missed one game in his first two season, but Brown could be a valuable handcuff pick should McCoy suffer an injury.
The Steve Smith signing will likely have no bearing on your fantasy roster. Even if Smith can recover and get healthy he will have a hard time finding his way on to the field. He finds himself behind DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant and possibly Riley Cooper. Should Maclin's mystery illness be serious and the Eagles suffer another injury then Smith may warrant waiver consideration, but otherwise let someone else take the chance.
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| Tim Hightower |
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