NFC North-Fantasy Football Preview

The defending Super Bowl champ Green Bay Packers aren't without questions entering the 2011 fantasy football season after suffering through an exorbitant number of injuries on the road to the hoisting the Lombardi trophy last year.  The Pack was able to plug backups in to their lineup and steamroll to the title.  Winning fantasy teams are also built around quality depth.  This post is the first in a series examining the key fantasy players from each division in the NFL.  Today's spotlight is on the NFC North.

Green Bay Packers
The Packers are anchored by the top fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers, and he has the belt to prove it.  Rodgers carried Green Bay last year passing for nearly 4,000 yards while accounting for a total of 32 TDs.  Another solid season appears in order.  Rodgers numbers the last three years average out to 4131 yards with 28 passing touchdowns.  He has been good for an additional 4 rushing TDs and is extremely durable.  The only game he has missed in three years was in 2011 when he missed a week due to a concussion. 



Ryan Grant's ankle injury has the
Packers looking at several options
for their backfield in 2011

 Ryan Grant suffered a season ending ankle injury in week one only managing to log eight carries for the season.  Grant has declared himself the starting back in Green Bay for the coming year, but all indications are that the Packers running back duties will be split unless a surprise emerges.  Grant has enjoyed the most success, registering two seasons of 1,200 plus yards.  He is creeping towards the dreaded 30 year mark turning 29 during the upcoming season, but lacks the typical wear and tear of many backs his age.  Brandon Jackson filled in admirably for Grant last season accumulating 703 yards but appears to be the odd man out behind Grant and James Starks who showed he was capable of carrying the load in the playoffs.  Starks figures to be in the mix along with rookie Alex Green who the Packers spent a third round pick on.  This backfield battle is certainly one to keep your eyes on through camp and in to the preseason to see if a clear cut starter emerges.  If not, proceed with caution and only use a pick on one of these backs in the later rounds as sleeper pick. 

Wide receiver has been a position of wealth for Green Bay for several seasons.  Their explosive offense means several wideouts on their roster may find a spot on your fantasy roster.  Greg Jennings is a top tier fantasy receiver and should again lead the Packers statistically.  He is coming off a very solid 76/1265/12 season and should duplicate those numbers in 2011.  The Packers have a solid trio of receivers behind Jennings.  Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones all put up very similar numbers in 2010.  While fantasy owners would like for a solid #2 option to emerge, any of the players are valuable as emergency spot starters.  I expect Jones to seek a more prominent role and end up elsewhere in free agency.  Driver and Nelson's numbers could see a bump but rookie Randall Cobb figures to work his way onto the field and again divide the catches.

After a strong stretch run in 2009, Jermichael Finley was a popular sleeper pick at tight end last year.  He got off to a good start before being forced to the IR with a knee injury.  Finley has the size and talent to be an excellent red zone target, but his injury history is a concern.  Finley will be picked early because of his talent and potential.  Don't overpay given his history and the depth at tight end. 

Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler has the unique ability to cause to high five your buddies one minute and shout profanities at him the next.  "Gunslinger" is a popular term for QBs like Cutler, but I'm not sure reckless and overconfident aren't better descriptions. Rarely can you say that a QB decreased his INTs by ten and still managed to average more than one pick per game.  Combine those 16 interceptions with 9 fumbles and Cutler's inability to protect the ball make him a risky pick at QB.  Cutler has the skill set to be an elite QB but he has yet to put it together for long stretches.  Look elsewhere for your backup QB unless he proves early in the season to have changed his ways.

Matt Forte quietly put together a solid season last year.  He was especially useful in PPR leagues where he tallied 51 catches and found the end zone on three of those.  Forte, who doesn't turn 26 until December, has consistently been a good receiver out of the backfield.  Consider him a solid RB2 on draft day and pencil him in for 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs. 

Johnny Knox leads the Bears receiving corps.  Knox is a safe WR2 for your fantasy team.  Adjust him down a tick in PPR leagues.  He nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards last season, but he did it on only 51 receptions.  The other Bears receivers can be called the Disappointing Devins.  Devin Hester is a solid return man and is capable of electrifying moments, but he hasn't put it all together as a wide receiver.  Devin Aromashodu was a popular sleeper pick last year but only managed 10 catches on the season.  Earl Bennett saw his production dip last year, and will be undervalued on draft day.  Keep an eye on what the Bears do in free agency regarding wide receiver and adjust your rankings accordingly. 

Greg Olsen is a bye week fill in at tight end and should be passed over on draft day. 

Minnesota Vikings
Unless you play in a keeper league there is nothing to consider at QB for the Vikings.  Christian Ponder may be a serviceable fantasy QB in the future, but he is not ready in 2011.  The Vikings are expected to pursue a veteran free agent to lead their offense and groom Ponder, but regardless of whether that ends up being Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger or someone else they have no spot on your fantasy team. 

Adrian Peterson is arguably the top player in fantasy football and will be leaned on heavily to carry the load for the Vikings offense.  Peterson's numbers were down last year and they may not improve in the upcoming campaign.  With questions at the quarterback position teams will load the line of scrimmage and dare the Vikings to beat them throwing the ball.  Peterson is still an elite performer, but tread lightly and temper your expectations in light of variables out of his control. 

Minnesota has a huge question mark at the receiver position with potential free agent Sidney Rice.  Rice blossomed in 2009 with Brett Favre under center and put up solid numbers last year after returning from a hip injury.  Rice, who turns 25 in September, could be one of the most highly sought after free agents when the owners and players reach an agreement, but will likely find himself as a restricted free agent.  He was very underwhelming while playing his first two seasons with mediocre QBs and you will have to gauge his ranking based on his eventual landing spot and the their QB situation. Despite seeming to be on the injury report all of last season, Percy Harvin only missed two games in 2011.  While he is a little less valuable than Rice, Harvin's may not suffer as much with the QB uncertainty due to the role he plays on the Vikings.  Harvin has the explosiveness to score anytime he touches the ball and should be a big part of the Vikes intermediate passing game.  Draft Harvin as a high WR3 with the upside to develop in to more. 

The Vikings used their second round draft pick in April to select TE Kyle Rudolph.  They will likely use a lot of two tight end sets, and will work Rudolph in at the expense of Visanthe Shiancoe.  Neither TE has draft day appeal at this point.  If Rice ends up elsewhere, Shiancoe may emerge as a red zone target, but not much else. 

Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford has not been able to stay healthy in his short two year career.  He has shown flashes when he is on the field and has a strong cast surrounding him.  Stafford would be a good pick for an owner who secures a top tier QB and is looking at upside and a potential trade later in the season. 

Jahvid Best is another back who's value sees an upward tick in PPR leagues.  He only rushed for 551 yards last year, but grabbed 58 balls for an additional 487 yards.  He found the end zone six times rushing last year but may see his goal line opportunities challenged by rookie 2nd round pick Mickel Leshoure.  Leshoure is a power back who will be a solid complementary back for the Lions, but could drive fantasy owners crazy.  Consider Best a shaky RB2 and Leshoure as a late round flier or potential TD vulture. 

Calvin Johnson is an elite fantasy receiver and should be among the top three wideouts off the board in your draft.  Look for Johnson to register a 85/1200/10 season.  He is a solid building block for your fantasy squad having performed regardless of who was under center for the Lions.  Beyond Johnson, the Lions do not have a sure thing at receiver on their roster.  Nate Burleson had a productive season last year and could again be a decent WR4 option.  The Lions drafted Titus Young out of Boise State and expect him to step in and get on the field in his rookie season.  Young figures to spend most of his time working out the slot and has the talent to take some catches from Burleson.  Both guys have the look of waiver wire fodder at this stage. 



Calvin Johnson should be one of
the top three WRs drafted

Brandon Pettigrew had a strong second pro season accumulating a 71/722/4 season.  His size makes him a good red zone option and he may see an increase in his TD total.  Slate him as a low TE1 and enjoy the upside. 

Keep checking back as we work our way around the league and examine the potential fantasy contributors for the upcoming season. 

MLB's All-Star Problem

 Much has been made over the record low television viewers for last week's MLB All-Star game.  Bud Selig says, "To say the players don't care is absolute nonsense," but with it taking an eventual 84 invites to round out AL and NL rosters it is , at best, hard to argue the players take the game seriously.  Here are my suggestions on how commissioner Selig can return the mid summer classic to a place of prominence and respect.

Homefield ADVANTAGE!
Sure the league that wins the All Star game earns home field advantage in World Series and we all recognize the importance of the comforts of home, so why not take it a step further?   What if the winning league earned a 5-to-2 game homefield advantage for their accomplishment?  Would a player on a contending team with a minor injury be more inclined to go and help his league secure the win?  Their All Star game contribution could possibly be as pivotal as any contribution they make to their individual team through the second half.  After the winning team spends the first two World Series games on the road they retreat to their home stadium to finish out the series.  This gives the winning league, possibly, three more games at home against their opponent.

Ask before you print the ballot
A simple solution to all the players bailing on the All Star game is to simply not have them eligible to make the team.  MLB can take a simple survey of players and ask if they were selected for the game if they would participate.  An injury that prohibited a player's participation would, of course, be acceptable.  I understand that a 15-year vet who has made the All Star game numerous times may want to enjoy a few days of rest, so why not give them an honorable way out and allow the rising stars of the game to get a taste of the spotlight?

Reduce the Rosters
This year's All Star game included 41 position players alone.  Remember the good ole' days when the starters played six or seven innings before giving way to a substitute?  The talent is watered down and in addition to not seeing all of the biggest stars in MLB, fans aren't seeing the players who do attend the game very long.  Having the starters log more innings will result in less players being needed for the game and will draw the fans back in.  Getting rid of the rule requiring a player from each team will help here as well.  If you don't want to keep score in little league to preserve your ten year old's self esteem then feel free, but if you don't get it as 28 year-old who is batting .270 with twelve home runs that you aren't one of the elite players in the best league in the world then the game has truly lost it's prestige.  By including less players and only including the true best of the best the game will regain respect with the fans and will be seen as a true honor for the players. 

Baseball wins.  The fans win.  We all win!

Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Be Flexible

All your research is done and now you are ready to dominate your draft.  You have your players ranked and have noted the drop off lines in talent.  Your homework shows you where players are generally being drafted and you have a mental notebook full of useful information about your opponents.  Now it's time to execute and build your team. 

The easy thing is to over think your draft and develop tunnel vision zeroing in on specific players.  Now is not the time to reach and ruin all your hard work.  Now is the time to be flexible, adjust and take what your opponents give you.  Over the course of your draft, surprises will come up and your opponents will leave you scratching your head with some of their picks.  If you are rigid in your approach you will miss the opportunity to grab a guy that should have never been available when you were picking. 

Keep an eye on who is being picked and mark them off your list.  Pay particular attention to the positions that your opponents are filling.  Noticing that you and another owner are the only teams without a starting QB and seeing that you have three or more quarterbacks ranked in the same tier will allow you to fill depth at other positions confidently assuming your opponents will not take another signal caller.  Work the depth at positions and draft the best available player according to need and you will be on your way to putting together a winning fantasy football team. 

Fantasy Football Draft-Snake or Auction

"Where are you picking?"  It is the most common question leading up to draft day.  What if I told you that your answer could be, "Anywhere, and everywhere I want!"

We all know that there are several different scoring systems that are commonly used in fantasy football, but you may not know that there is more than one way to draft for your league.  Here is a quick rundown of both the snake and auction draft and how they work so that you can decide what type of draft is best for your league. 

Overview

Snake-In the snake format owners select their team in a serpentine manner round after round.  Draft position is usually determined well before the draft but may not be determined until just prior to drafting time.  This format is the most popular and is a good starting point for beginners. 

Auction-An auction draft is exactly what the name suggests it would be.  Players are still called in a serpentine manner, but that is where the similarities end.  Once a player is called and is placed on the "auction block" any owner can bid to have them on their team.  Each team has a set amount of money, or a salary cap, to spend on their team.  Once the draft is complete, trades and free agency are conducted just as they are in snake format.  Auction amounts are not considered in trades and free agents have no $ value. 

The auction draft is more strategic and stands to do a little natural thinning of the fantasy herd.  In a snake draft an ill prepared owner may show up and fall in to a competitive team and occasionally even win the league.  An auction draft requires more planning and strategy in placing auction values on the players.  Owners who do their homework and are most prepared stand to be rewarded with the strongest teams. 

The snake draft leads to long lulls for the owners picking near the front or back of the pack and they can get disinterested or lose track of who has already been selected.  This is the guy we all know and love who calls out five names that have already been selected every time his pick rolls around from the fifth round on. 

Another advantage of the auction draft is that no owner is handcuffed by his draft position early.  There is always that spot where the clear cut order falls apart and an owner has to reach for a running back or go with a top tier receiver or quarterback.  In an auction, the only opportunity to overpay for a player or position is completely your choice.  For example, this year you may be picking fifth in your traditional snake draft and decide that there is not a real value pick at that slot.  Regardless of what you think about the players who are there when your spot comes up, you are forced to make a selection for your roster. In an auction draft you have the flexibility to bring up a guy you have rated lower and go after him for the money you have determined him to be worth or you can call the name of one of the guys perceived to go in that spot and watch your opponents spend their money on him.  Every pick allow you the option of effectively "trading down" to a spot of value.



Foster AND Peterson in your fantasy football backfield?
With an auction draft anything is possible!

 Going once, going twice...gone!
Is your league ready to take the plunge and move to an auction draft?  Here is a look at some basic strategy to prepare you for an auction draft. 

I am a big believer in establishing tiers of players and drawing lines for the talent drop offs.  This allows you to group players together and decide when you need to address a certain position and when you can let things slide a round further.  In an auction draft, one draft day blunder you will want to avoid is to get caught chasing the last guy in a particular tier.  This is especially true at the top of each positional tier where there will generally be a consensus among owners.  Most owners will agree that this year the top three backs are Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster.  While there is much debate as to how they are slated one to three most people can agree that is the top tier.  Historically, the last of those three guys put on the auction block will go for a premium, and likely be overpaid for because owners will want to be sure to secure a guy in the top tier.  Sometimes you can't help it and your opponents will overpay for the last and next to last guy in a tier, but if you can don't jump off the cliff reaching for a player because you backed yourself in a corner by waiting.  Keep your head and know when to bow out of the bidding and spend your money elsewhere. 

The easy thing to do in an auction draft is to spend your money.  The way to win in an auction league is to spend your opponents money!  Make sure you have your list of big name players that you are sour on and put them up for auction when your time rolls around.  Bring your buddy's favorite player up and watch him overspend and allow you to slide into some solid value picks to fill out your roster later.  You will even want to occasionally get in on the bidding and drive the price up, but know when to get out.  Nobody admires the guy who pays five grand for the black velvet picture of the dogs playing poker!

The only way you should have any money left at the end of your draft is if you were fortunate enough to clean up with a hand full of $1 buys to end your draft.  And even then, you shouldn't have much left.  Once the draft is complete, trades and free agents are just as they are in a snake draft format.  Dollar values are no longer of consequence, so there is no reason to save your money.  Spend it all!  Having said that don't be afraid to make some thrifty buys.  Save your sleepers for the later rounds of the auction.  You may be able to secure many of them for just one dollar.  You can't count on landing every sleeper on your board for the minimum, so stash away a little money to make a strong run at the prospects that you feel strongest about.  If you play your cards right and can save a little more money than your opponents through the early rounds, then late in the draft you will have positioned yourself to pick and choose the guys that your opponents have limited funds to pursue and still get a great bargain.

If you are looking to change things up in your league or take your league to a new level, I recommend that you consider giving an auction draft a try.  Your draft will be a blast and your fellow owners will thank you later.   

Fantasy Football Draft Checklist-Check Your Heart At The Door

Your draft is coming together now and you are picking up momentum.  One of the crucial pieces of knowledge that we looked at yesterday was to know your league and opponents' tendencies; it is just as important to not fall in to the trap of developing habits in your drafting strategy.  The only manner you want to be predictable at is to be recognized for drafting based on your draft position, need and talent.  By checking your heart at the door you won't fall in to the trap of drafting the guy that helped you win last year (unless he is the right guy at the right time anyway), or the aging star of your favorite team. 


Too many great NFL players are average fantasy performers and get drafted far too early based solely on name recognition.  Adopting a strict policy of drafting using with my system may leave your fantasy team without any players from your favorite NFL team and you may even end up with some players from your hated rival, but it will stack you with a team full of talent and ready to make a run at the title!